DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/08 12:07

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/08 12:07 Technical Pressure Drives Cattle Complex Lower Friday A few more live sales have been reported in Nebraska at $188, but otherwise the cash cattle market is still quiet. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as some technical pressure is settling into the market. A few more cash cattle sales have been reported in Nebraska at $188, but otherwise the market is still quiet. December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 258.15 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle complex is trading lower as the market endures some pressure as traders are likely reacting to the fact that some of the funds are moving their positions as the Goldman roll gets underway. Friday's lower break thankfully remains above the market's 100-day moving average, but all in all it isn't that surprising the market is trading lower given that cash prices are developing $2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average and boxed beef prices are trending lower too." Nevertheless, the market will likely continue with this weaker trend through Friday's close. December live cattle are down $1.55 at $184.27, February live cattle are down $1.57 at $185.85, and April live cattle are down $1.42 at $186.82. Following Thursday's light cash cattle trade, there have been a few more deals starting to surface as the market nears Friday's noon hour. Some live sales have been reported this morning in Nebraska at $188, but most of the other bids have sat idle this morning as they're still several dollars below current asking prices. Southern feedlot managers are asking $190 to $192 and Northern feedlot managers are asking $296-plus. There were a few sales noted Thursday afternoon in eastern Nebraska where cattle sold for mostly $294, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Packer interest should improve this afternoon but given that they've been able to slowly add to their inventory over the last couple of weeks, prices are expected to be lower this week and the week's movement could be light. Friday's WASDE report was very support to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025. Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter. Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2.00 from last month); steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1.00); steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1.00); and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1.00). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.18 ($309.28) and select down $1.59 ($278.13) with a movement of 104 loads (67.66 loads of choice, 11.41 loads of select, 8.67 loads of trim and 16.42 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: With the live cattle complex trading lower, it comes as no surprise that the feeder cattle market is also trending lower. November feeders are down $2.07 at $245.57, January feeders are down $2.67 at $241.67, and March feeders are down $2.75 at $239.50. Friday's lower dive in the spot January contract does push the contract back below its 40-day and 100-day moving averages, which typically means the market is in a weaker trend. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the market is currently enduring some pressure on nearby contracts, but the deferred contracts are trading slightly higher. December lean hogs are down $0.72 at $80.47, February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $84.85, and April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $88.95. The swings in the carcass price have been extreme lately as the belly is up $33.51 Friday morning -- which has pushed the carcass price over $7.00 higher. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/7/2024 is down $0.18 at $90.43 and the actual index for 11/6/2024 is up $0.37 at $90.61. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.03 with a weighted average price of $82.23, ranging from $74.00 to $85.50 on 924 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.52. Pork cutouts total 195.33 loads with 170.20 loads of pork cuts and 25.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.13, $105.10. Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed, and the trend continued into 2025 projections as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds. Thankfully the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60.00 (up $5.00 from last month); hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58.00 (up $3.00); hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62.00 (up $1.00); and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds and pork exports for 2024 were increased by one million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.