By DTN Staff
This article was originally published at 11:03 a.m. CDT on Friday, Nov. 8. It was last updated with additional information at 11:32 a.m. CDT on Friday, Nov. 8.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday dropped soybean production by 121 million bushels (mb) to 4.461 billion bushels (bb) and lowered corn production 60 mb to 15.143 bb.
Soybean yield was cut to 51.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down 1.4 bpa from October. The corn yield was pegged at 183.1 bpa, down 0.7 bpa but still a record.
USDA released its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.
Friday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral to slightly bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral on wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral to slightly bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat, he said.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often, as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
Corn production for the 2024-25 crop is projected at 15.143 billion bushels, down 60 million bushels from last month. USDA also trimmed the yield by 0.7 bushel per acre to 183.1 bpa.
Harvested acres remained at 82.7 million acres.
For demand, USDA held pat. Projected total Feed and Residual use was held at 5.825 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.45 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 bb.
Corn exports are forecast at 2.325 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.938 bb, down 61 million bushels from last month, likely due to round numbering.
The farmgate price for 2024-25 remained at $4.10 a bushel.
Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 314.22 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.57 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 304.14 mmt, down 2.38 mmt. USDA held pat on 2024-25 Brazil's corn production at 127 mmt and Argentina at 51 mmt.
For the global 2023-24 crop, USDA also held Brazil's production at 122 mmt, but lowered exports 2 mmt to 44 mmt. USDA also maintained Argentina's production at 50 mmt and raised exports 1 mmt to 33 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA slashed its estimate for the national average soybean yield by 1.4 bushels to 51.7 bushels per acre. After leaving acreage unchanged, the production forecast fell to 4.461 billion bushels from last month's 4.582 bb. That's just barely behind 2021's record.
On the demand side, USDA trimmed 2024-25 crush by 15 mb and exports by 25 mb. Residual use was trimmed by 1 mb. As a result of production and demand changed, ending stocks dropped to 470 mb, 80 mb less than last month.
The national average farm gate price is $10.80.
Globally, USDA cut 2.9 mmt from ending stocks for 2024-25 to 131.74 mmt, reflecting lower U.S. soybean production. USDA left Brazil and Argentina production unchanged for 2024-25 at 169 mmt and 51 mmt, respectively.
WHEAT
USDA pegged U.S. wheat production at 1.971 bb in November, unchanged from October's estimate.
USDA estimates ending stocks at 815 mb in November, an increase of 3 million bushels from October's estimate. U.S. wheat use is estimated at 1.973 bb, an increase of 2 million bushels from October.
Wheat exports were left unchanged at 825 mb, while USDA estimates the farmgate price at $5.60, down from $5.70 in October.
Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 257.57 mmt, a decrease from 257.72 mmt in October.
USDA estimates global wheat production at 794.73 mmt, an increase from 794.08 mmt last month.
Wheat production in Argentina was estimated at 17.5 mmt, down from the October estimate of 18.0. Brazil's production is estimated at 8.5 mmt, a slight dip from 9.0 mmt in October. Australia's production was unchanged from last month at 32.0 mmt.
Wheat production in Russia was pegged at 81.5 mmt and Ukraine production was estimated at 22.9 mmt. Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine both were unchanged at 48 mmt and 16 mmt, respectively.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report was very support to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds, as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed, and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter," Stewart said. "Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase by 2025. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see that quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2 from last month), steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1), steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1) and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds."
Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds, as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed, and the trend continued into 2025 projections as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds," she said. "Thankfully, the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices, as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60 (up $5 from last month), hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58 (up $3), hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62 (up $1) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds, and pork exports for 2024 were increased by 1 million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds."
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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST Friday, Nov. 8, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's October WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | | | |
| | Nov | Avg | High | Low | Oct | 2022-23 |
| Corn | 15,143 | 15,179 | 15,300 | 15,006 | 15,203 | 15,341 |
| Soybeans | 4,461 | 4,553 | 4,640 | 4,488 | 4,582 | 4,162 |
| | | | | | | |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2024-25 (WASDE) |
| | Nov | Avg | High | Low | Oct | 2022-23 |
| Corn | 183.1 | 183.7 | 185.0 | 182.5 | 183.8 | 177.3 |
| Soybeans | 51.7 | 52.8 | 53.8 | 52.0 | 53.1 | 50.6 |
| | | | | | | |
| U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2024-25 |
| | Nov | Avg | High | Low | Oct | 2022-23 |
| Corn | 82.7 | 82.6 | 82.8 | 82.0 | 82.7 | 86.5 |
| Soybeans | 86.3 | 86.2 | 86.3 | 85.8 | 86.3 | 82.3 |
| | | | | | | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 |
| | Nov | Avg | High | Low | Oct | |
| Corn | 1,938 | 1,921 | 2,071 | 1,801 | 1,999 | |
| Soybeans | 470 | 535 | 602 | 480 | 550 | |
| Wheat | 815 | 812 | 830 | 800 | 812 | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | | |
| | Nov | Avg | High | Low | Oct | |
| Corn | 314.2 | 312.5 | 313.0 | 312.0 | 312.7 | |
| Soybeans | 112.4 | 112.3 | 112.6 | 112.0 | 112.4 | |
| Wheat | 266.3 | 266.2 | 266.4 | 266.0 | 266.2 | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | | |
| | Nov | Avg | High | Low | Oct | |
| Corn | 304.1 | 305.9 | 308.5 | 304.0 | 306.5 | |
| Soybeans | 131.7 | 134.0 | 135.0 | 131.5 | 134.7 | |
| Wheat | 257.6 | 256.8 | 258.0 | 255.4 | 257.7 | |
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