By DTN Staff
This article was originally published at 11:01 a.m. CST on Tuesday, Dec. 10. It was last updated with additional information at 11:32 a.m. CST on Tuesday, Dec. 10.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA cut corn ending stocks by 200 million bushels (mb), aggressively improving its forecasts for exports and ethanol production. The new ending stocks estimate, 1.738 billion bushels (bb), is 62 mb below the lowest pre-report trade estimate.
Soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 were left unchanged at 470 mb, while wheat stocks declined 20 mb to 795 mb.
USDA released its December Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday.
Tuesday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, neutral to slightly bearish on soybeans, and slightly bullish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. Meanwhile, world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bullish for corn, neutral to slightly bearish for soybeans, and neutral for wheat.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often, as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Tuesday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA made big changes to corn demand, resulting in a 200-million-bushels reduction to ending stocks. As is customary in December reports, USDA left production unchanged 15.143 bb. Corn use for ethanol increased 50 mb, while export estimates climbed by 150 mb to 2.475 bb. Ending stocks for the 2024-25 season came in at 1.738 bb. The national average farm gate price remained unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Globally, corn stocks for the 2024-25 season declined to 296.44 million metric tons (mmt), a 7.7-mmt cut that fell below the range of pre-report estimates. Brazil's and Argentina's production were left unchanged at 127 mmt and 51 mmt, respectively.
For the old-crop, 2023-24 season, USDA raised its ending stocks estimate by 2 mmt to 316.22 mmt, above the range of pre-report estimates.
SOYBEANS
USDA held pat on its U.S. estimates for soybeans from November. Exports were estimated at 1.825 bb in December, while soybean crush is pegged at 2.41 bb and use at 4.348 bb.
Total U.S. production is estimated at 4.46 bb, and the yield forecast at 51.7 bushels per acre in December.
Domestic ending stocks for 2024-25 are forecast at 470 mb. The only change was the national average farm gate price, which was estimated at $10.20, down from $10.80 per bushel last month.
Globally, USDA pegged world soybean stocks at 131.87 mmt, increased from 131.74 mmt in November.
Brazilian soybean production was left unchanged at 169.0 mmt, along with Brazil's exports at 105.5 mmt.
Production in Argentina was estimated at 52.0 mmt, up from 51.0 mmt in November, while exports were unchanged at 4.5 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 795 million bushels, decreased from November's estimate of 815 mb.
U.S. wheat use is estimated at 1.998 billion bushels, increased from 1.973 bb in November.
Wheat exports were estimated at 850 mb, an increase from 825 mb last month. USDA estimates the farmgate price of wheat at $5.60, unchanged from November.
Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 257.88 million metric tons, increased from 257.57 mmt in November.
USDA cut global wheat production from 794.73 mmt last month to 792.95 mmt in December.
USDA estimates wheat production in Argentina at 17.5 mmt, unchanged from November. Wheat production in Australia was estimated at 32.0 mmt, unchanged from last month. Brazil's production is estimated at 8.1 mmt, down from 8.5 mmt last month.
USDA estimates wheat production in Russia at 81.5 mmt, unchanged from November. Ukraine wheat production was pegged at 22.9 mmt, also unchanged.
Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 47.0 mmt, decreased from 48 mmt, while USDA pegs Ukraine exports at 16.5 mmt, an increase from 16.0 mmt in November.
LIVESTOCK
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mostly positive news for the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"For 2024, beef production was raised by 10 million pounds, as the fed cattle slaughter has been more aggressive than originally assumed, and carcass weights remain historically high. For 2025, beef production was decreased by 615 million pounds, as the restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico will result in lighter placements in the first half of 2025, and consequently, fewer cattle to process in the second half of 2025. Steer price projections for the fourth quarter of 2024 remained unchanged at $188, but steer price projections for the first quarter of 2025 averaged $188 (steady with last month's data), steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $2 from last month) and steer prices are expected to average $192 (up $6 from last month) in the third quarter of 2025. Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 80 million pounds, while 2024 exports remained unchanged. Meanwhile, beef imports for 2025 were increased by 195 pounds, but beef exports were decreased by 105 million pounds."
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog markets of 2024 and 2025, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 35 million pounds, as carcass weights are lighter than originally assumed. And this trend continued into 2025, as once again, lighter carcass weights pushed 2025 production levels to 28,370 million pounds, which is down 30 million pounds from last month's estimate. The quarterly price projections were encouraging for the hog complex, as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $62 (up $2 from last month), hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $60 (up $2 from last month), hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $65 (up $3 from last month) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $68 (up $5 from last month). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2024 were also decreased by 35 million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 50 million pounds and pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 30 million pounds."
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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST Tuesday, Dec. 10, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's December WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 |
| | Dec | Avg | High | Low | Nov | |
| Corn | 1,738 | 1,887 | 1,938 | 1,800 | 1,938 | |
| Soybeans | 470 | 471 | 531 | 430 | 470 | |
| Wheat | 795 | 816 | 835 | 787 | 815 | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | | |
| | Dec | Avg | High | Low | Nov | |
| Corn | 316.2 | 314.1 | 314.3 | 313.5 | 314.2 | |
| Soybeans | 112.2 | 112.3 | 112.5 | 112.0 | 112.4 | |
| Wheat | 267.4 | 266.3 | 267.4 | 266.0 | 266.3 | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | | |
| | Dec | Avg | High | Low | Nov | |
| Corn | 296.4 | 303.4 | 305.3 | 300.0 | 304.1 | |
| Soybeans | 131.9 | 132.9 | 135.0 | 132.0 | 131.7 | |
| Wheat | 257.9 | 257.6 | 259.9 | 255.5 | 257.6 | |
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