By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor
OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics sees U.S. corn and soybean crops increasing slightly from USDA’s last forecast.
It estimated the national average corn yield at 170.1 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bpa from last month. Production was pegged at 13.72 billion bushels. Informa increased its estimated yields in Illinois and Iowa by 5 bpa and Indiana, Minnesota, the Dakotas and Arkansas by 2 bpa.
“Given the favorable reports that we have heard from around the country, Informa’s higher estimate is reasonable and, if true, will give corn prices some bearish pressure next Tuesday, but probably not enough to shake prices out of their current sideways range,” DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said.
USDA will release its next Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 11 a.m. CT.
The soybean crop, estimated at 3.95 bb, is 64 million bushels higher than USDA’s October forecast. Informa’s national average yield estimate increased 0.8 bpa from last month to a record 47.9 bpa. Yield estimates increased in more than a dozen states.
“Informa increased the yield estimate from 47.2 to 47.9 bushels an acre, resulting in a production increase from October’s 3.888 billion bushel estimate to a new estimate of 3.952 billion bushels,” Hultman said. “That also is reasonable and, if true, will keep soybean prices near this year’s lows, possibly to the end of 2015 unless a surprise emerges in South America.”
Informa also released its estimates of world crop production as market focus increasingly shifts to planting in Brazil and Argentina. It’s still early for these estimates to be entirely accurate, Hultman said, adding that they should be watched through the lens of changes in the weather as planting continues.
Forecasts for Brazilian corn and soybean production both increased in Informa’s latest report. Soybean production is now forecast at 101 million metric tons, 1 mmt higher than last month, based on Informa’s planting survey that indicated a 5% increase in planted acres.
Informa projects that Brazil’s corn production will total 81.8 mmt, which is 700,000 metric tons above last month. Farmers are expected to harvest 27.8 mmt of main season corn and 54 mmt of winter corn.
Argentina producers are expected to increase soybean production at the expense of corn harvest. Informa’s estimate for soybean production increased 3 mmt from last month to 59 mmt, and is based on a recent planting survey. Argentina’s corn production is forecast at 18.5 mmt, down 1.5 mmt from Informa’s report last month.
Informa also reduced its forecast for Ukraine’s 2015 corn production to 23 mmt, down 1.5 mmt from last month.
“Informa forecasts Ukraine’s 2015 corn production at 23.0 mmt, which is down from USDA’s estimate of 25.0 mmt,” Hultman said. “Their estimate for Brazil is 1.8 mmt above USDA at 81.8 mmt and for Argentina is 5.5 mmt below USDA at 18.5 mmt. Overall, these influences should be neutral for corn.
“For soybeans, Informa’s 2015 estimates for Brazil and Argentina are 101.0 and 59.0 mmt respectively, above USDA’s estimates of 100.0 and 57.0 mmt. It is still early to take South American estimates too seriously, and prices are not likely to have much impact from a change in these estimates yet.”
Informa sees lower wheat production in Russia (down 500,000 mt to 60.5 mmt), Argentina (down 1 mmt to 9.5 mmt) and Australia (down 1 mmt to 23 mmt). Informa said dry conditions in October stressed the wheat during grain fill.
“Among their wheat estimates, the biggest disagreement with USDA is their estimate of 23.0 mmt for Australia, some 4.0 mmt below USDA’s estimate. They did not mention a change in the estimate for Europe, which could be increased again in November and offset most of the reduction in Australia.”
Katie Micik can be reached at katie.micik@dtn.com
Follow Katie Micik on Twitter @KatieMDTN
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