DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/11 11:35

DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/11 11:35 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is lower across the board at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow down 10 points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 10 points higher. Energies are making new lows with crude $1.50 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2. CORN Corn trade is 6 cents lower with continued concerns about demand and outside markets keeping trade on the defensive. Continued weakness in the Chinese stock market continue to overshadow the market with crude making new lows this morning. Monday and Tuesday morning trade should see position squaring ahead of the USDA numbers due out at 11 a.m. Tuesday. The average trade guess for the final USDA 2015 Production estimate is at 13.647 billion bushels versus the current USDA 13.654 number. The range of estimates is 13.526-13.770. So the market is expected to change very little and we remain well below the record 14.216-billion-bushel 2014 crop. The December 1 Quarterly Grain stocks are expected to be at 11.25 billion versus 11.211 billion a year ago; the range of estimates is 11.07-11.8 billion. The domestic carryover estimate is at 1.774 billion versus 1.785 seen on the December USDA report. The world carryover is expected to be at 213.1 million tons versus the 211.9 December number. The weekly export inspections showed some improvement at 550,028 metric tons, along with fresh sales of 152,400 metric tons announced to unknown. On the March chart, support is at the $3.48 1/2 fresh contract low, resistance is at the $3.56 1/4 10-day moving average, then the 20-day at $3.64. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 5 cents lower with trade giving back the initial gains while commercial trade continues to add support. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. The drier areas of Brazil have a better near term forecast again with some relief over the weekend. The market should be focused on the USDA numbers and South American weather next week albeit the outside markets could stay exciting too. The average trade guess for the final USDA 2015 Soybean Production is 3.983 billion bushels versus 3.981 on the USDA November report. The average December 1 stocks estimate is at 2.718 billion bushels versus 2.528 a year ago, the range of estimates is 2.59 to 2.852 billion. The domestic carryover estimate is 471 million bushels versus 465 on the December report, the range of estimates is 430-500 billion bushels. The global carryover estimate is at 82.5 million tons versus 82.6 on the December report. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 1.244 million metric tons, with the USDA announcing fresh sales to China of 120,000 metric tons, and 248,000 to unknown. On the March soybean chart support is at the recent low at $8.55, with the 20-day at 8.71 resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 7 to 11 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with trade following row crops lower. Weather looks to be a non-threat this week with better snow cover in Russia, and no major winter kill threats in the US. The USDA will release the Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates on Tuesday, the average guess is for 39.3 million acres versus 39.5 million last year. The range of estimates is 38.3 to 40.8. The December 1 Wheat Quarterly Grain stocks estimate is at 1.697 billion bushels versus 1.53 a year ago. The domestic carryover estimate is at a large 919 million bushels versus 911 on the December report and 753 million last crop year. The global carryover is expected to be at 229.8 billion versus 229.8 on the December report. The weekly export inspections remain soft at 393,688 metric tons. On the March KC chart support is at the $4.52 1/4 contract low printed this week, with nearby resistance at the 20-day at $4.72, then the 50-day just below $4.80. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.