DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/12 10:59

DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/12 10:59 Grains Lower at Midday Midday trade is lower across the board ahead of the USDA report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are flat with the Dow up 2 points. The interest rate products are mostly lower. The U.S. dollar index is 40 points higher. Energies are making new lows with crude $1.05 lower. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $8. CORN Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower in quiet trade at midday with the market waiting for the day session to get going. Position squaring will likely dominate until the release of the USDA report at 11 a.m. CT. The average trade guess for the final USDA 2015 production estimate is at 13.647 billion bushels versus the current USDA 13.654 number. The range of estimates is 13.526 to 13.770. So the market is expecting little change and we remain well below the record 14.216 billion bushel 2014 crop. The Dec. 1 quarterly grain stocks are expected to be at 11.25 billion versus 11.211 billion a year ago; the range of estimates is 11.07 to 11.8 billion. The domestic carryover estimate is at 1.774 billion versus 1.785 seen on the December USDA report. The world carryover is expected to be at 213.1 million tons versus the 211.9 December number. CONAB raised the Brazilian corn crop estimate slightly to 83.2 million metric tons. On the March chart support is at the $3.48 1/2 fresh contract low, resistance is at the $3.55 10-day moving average, then the 20-day at $3.63. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday after some initially positive trade with continued commercial support. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The recent rains in Brazil were a bit less than expected, but the forecast still looks like it has improved. CONAB reduced their estimates of Brazilian production slightly to 102.1 million metric tons, which is well above most private forecasters. The market should be focused on the USDA numbers and South American weather next week, albeit the outside markets could stay exciting too. The average trade guess for the final USDA 2015 soybean production is 3.983 billion bushels versus 3.981 on the USDA November report. The average Dec. 1 stocks estimate is at 2.718 billion bushels versus 2.528 a year ago, the range of estimates is 2.59 to 2.852 billion. The domestic carryover estimate is 471 million bushels versus 465 on the December report, the range of estimates is 430 billion bushels to 500 bb. The global carryover estimate is at 82.5 million tons versus 82.6 on the December report. The USDA announced sales of 140,000 metric tons of soybeans. On the March soybean chart, support is at the recent low at $8.55, with the 20-day at 8.70 resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with trade drifting along ahead of the report. Weather looks to be a non-threat this week with better snow cover in Russia ahead of the next cold snap, and no major winter kill threats in the U.S., with sustained cold remaining limited. The USDA will release the Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates on Tuesday, the average guess is for 39.3 million acres versus 39.5 million last year. The range of estimates is 38.3 to 40.8. The Dec. 1 wheat quarterly grain stocks estimate is at 1.697 billion bushels versus 1.53 a year ago. The domestic carryover estimate is at a large 919 million bushels versus 911 on the December report and 753 million last crop year. The global carryover is expected to be at 229.8 billion versus 229.8 on the December report. On the March Kansas City chart, support is at the $4.52 1/4 contract low printed this week, with nearby resistance at the 20-day at $4.70, then the 50-day just below $4.80. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.