USDA Reports Summary

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA increased its forecast for Brazil and Argentina's corn production to 84 million metric tons and 27 mmt, respectively. Both numbers were above the range of pre-report expectations.

Soybean production in Brazil was left unchanged at 100 mmt, while Argentina's production was increased 1.5 mmt to 58.5 mmt.

Domestically, USDA increased corn and soybean ending stocks in February's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which was released at 11 a.m. CT on Tuesday.

USDA's domestic stock estimates should be viewed as bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The world estimates should be viewed as neutral-to-bearish for corn and bearish for soybeans and wheat, he said.

Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA pegged U.S ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels, up 35 mb from last month. USDA increased its forecast for imports by 10 mb and ethanol by 25 mb. It also trimmed its export forecast by 50 mb.

The domestic ending stocks-to-use ratio increased slightly to 13.6%. USDA left the range of national farm gate prices unchanged at $3.30 to $3.90 per bushels.

Globally, USDA estimated ending stocks at 208.8 mmt, slightly smaller than last month's estimate. The global stocks-to-use estimate held steady at 21.6%.

SOYBEAN

USDA boosted soybean ending stocks by 10 mb to 450 mb. USDA lowered its crush forecast by 10 mb to arrive at the slightly higher stocks figure.

Domestic stocks-to-use, at 12.2%, went up slightly. The range of national average farm gate prices was unchanged at $8.05 to $9.55 per bushels.

Globally, USDA put ending stocks at 80.4 mmt, up about 1.14 mmt from last month. Brazil's production was left unchanged, and most of the growth in ending stocks came from prospects for an improved Argentine harvest.

The stocks-to-use ratio increased to 25.6%.

WHEAT

U.S. wheat ending stocks came in at 966 mb, up 25 mb from last month. USDA arrived at that change by trimming exports by 25 mb. It now forecasts the U.S. will only export 775 mb in 2015-16.

The stocks-to-use ratio for wheat continues its rise and came in at 49.3% compared to 47.5% last month.

Globally, USDA pegged world stocks at 238.87 mmt, up 6.8 mmt, largely because of a 2 mmt increase to China's beginning stocks. World wheat production is forecast to be at a record high.

Global ending stocks-to-use were pegged at 33.6%, up from last month's 32.4% estimate.

ANALYSIS

USDA increased its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015-16 from 1.802 billion to 1.837 billion bushels, which was more than expected. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as bearish for corn," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending for 2015-16 was increased from 440 million to 450 million bushels, more than expected. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as bearish for soybeans," Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 941 million to 966 million bushels, which was more than expected. "Tuesday's U.S. report should be viewed as bearish for wheat," Hultman said.

Meanwhile, on the global side, USDA's estimate of global ending corn stocks for 2015-16 was reduced slightly from 208.94 mmt to 208.81 mmt, but was still more than expected.

USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2015-16 was increased from 79.28 mmt to 80.42 mmt and was more than expected.

USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 232.04 mmt to 238.87 mmt and was much more than expected.

"Tuesday's world estimates from USDA are neutral-to-bearish for corn and bearish for soybeans and wheat," Hultman said.

(AG)

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