DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/18 10:59

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/18 10:59 Grains Mixed at Midday Trade is lightly lower across the board at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 30 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 11 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is solidly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $7. CORN Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday in quiet trade at midday with consolidation following the gains we have seen this week. Commercial buying has slowed this morning, but the USDA announced 106,162 metric tons sold to Costa Rica. The weekly ethanol production report showed a 6,000 barrel a day gain in production, and a 1.1% increase in stocks on slightly higher gasoline demand, which his slightly negative for ethanol. The weekly export sales are delayed until Friday due to the holiday on Monday. On the March chart the $3.66 1/2 level is where we find the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which we closed above. The two-month high at $3.73 3/4 is where we have nearby resistance. Support is at the $3.58 1/4 January low then the $3.48 1/2 contract low. The market should be focused on longer term balance sheets the rest of the month with the baseline projections out tomorrow than the USDA Outlook Forum next week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade finding some light selling after the early week strength, but it remains solidly above nearby support. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Carry trade remains stable this morning with farmer selling remaining fairly slow. South American harvest progress will continue as it closes in on the 20% complete level in Brazil, keeping some pressure on the market. Some storms may disrupt port loading, but overall shipment pace out of South America should accelerate the second half of the month. On the March soybean chart we pushed above the $8.81 100-day yesterday, but have sat back below it this morning. A good finish today could help trade to find some additional short covering into the weekend. Chart support is at the $8.75 20-day with resistance at the $8.89 1/2 2-month high than the $9.10 200-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower across the three contracts this morning with significant pressure on Chicago trade, while KC is closer to flat. We moved above the 10-day yesterday, which is at $4.51 on the March KC chart; this has also been our noted resistance area for a while as it represented the previous low printed in early January. Light chatter was around about weather concerns from heat in India, and wheat emerging from dormancy in the US and Russia with warm temps has many thinking risk reward is to the upside in the near term. However, with supplies burdensome and the US at an export disadvantage this is little fundamental support. If a cold snap would occur with no snow cover in a few weeks damage would be seen. The dollar is still near the low end of our 4-month range, but we managed to get back up to the 200-day moving average, so the trend is in question. On the March KC chart the 10-day at $4.51 is chart support, with resistance is at the $4.60 20-day. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.