USDA Raises Soy Ending Stocks

By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- U.S. ending stocks for corn came in unchanged for March at 1.837 billion bushels, which was lower than pre-report estimates which had forecast stock increases.

Soybean ending stocks were raised 10 million bushels to 460 million bushels, slightly above the pre-report average among analysts for the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for March.

USDA also left unchanged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 966 million bushels, the same as the February report.

The U.S. estimates should be viewed as neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, while the world estimates should be viewed as bullish for corn and soybeans and neutral to bullish for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

Crop Production report link: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA made virtually no changes in U.S. corn numbers for the 2015-16 crop from the February report. USDA did make a small change to the corn food, seed and industrial use were lowered slightly for the 2014-15 crop, reflecting a 9-million-bushel reduction in corn used for ethanol production, dropping ethanol use to 5.2 billion bushels for the old crop.

USDA lowered old-crop ending stocks for Brazil and also revised Brazil's exports for 2014-15 as well. That dropped the 2015-16 beginning stocks by just over 1 million metric tons. USDA also slightly lowered global production by 440,000 metric tons. For 2015-16 global ending stocks, USDA lowered its estimates by 1.84 million metric tons.

SOYBEANS

U.S. soybean ending stocks were increased by 10 million bushels from the February report because soy crush was reduced by the same volume. Crush was reduced to 1.87 billion bushels due to lower projected domestic soybean meal use or disappearance.

USDA also lowered the average price per-bushel for 2015-16 crop 5 cents to $8.75 a bushel.

USDA lowered global soybean ending stocks for 2015-16, dropping it 1.55 million metric tons from last month. USDA kept Brazil's soybean production at 100 million metric tons, the same as February, and also left Argentina's production at 58.5 million metric tons, also the same as last month.

WHEAT

The pre-report average pegged higher ending stocks for wheat, but USDA left the number unchanged at 966 million bushels. USDA had no changes in domestic production, use or exports for wheat from the February report.

World wheat supplies were lowered by 3.3 million metric tons due largely to a 2.4-million-metric-ton decline in production in India. Consumption in India also was lowered by 1 million metric tons due to the smaller crop.

ANALYSIS

On the domestic side, USDA kept its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015-16 unchanged at 1.837 billion bushels, which was a little less than expected. "Wednesday's report should be viewed as neutral for corn," Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 450 million to 460 million bushels, slightly more than expected. "Wednesday's report should be viewed as neutral for soybeans," Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was kept unchanged at 966 million bushels, which was slightly less than expected. "Wednesday's U.S. report should be viewed as neutral for wheat," Hultman said.

On the global side, USDA's estimate of global ending corn stocks for 2015-16 was reduced from 208.81 mmt to 206.97 mmt, less than expected. The world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2015-16 was reduced from 80.42 mmt to 78.87 mmt, less than expected. USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was reduced from 238.87 mmt to 237.59 mmt, less than expected.

"Wednesday's world estimates from USDA are bullish for corn and soybeans, and neutral to bullish for wheat," Hultman said.

(AG)

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