DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 10:57

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 10:57 Grains Mixed to Lower at Midday Trade is lower ahead of the report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments U.S. stock market indices are flat to higher with the DOW futures up 12 points. Interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 lower. Energies are mixed with crude up .60. Livestock trade is lower is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $8. CORN Corn futures were 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with selling continuing ahead of the report after turning lower Wednesday. Ethanol margins look to remain fairly steady in the near term with unleaded needing to make further gains vs. ethanol futures to encourage aggressive blending with flat action today. The weekly export sales were solid at 790,600 metric tons of old crop -- the seventh straight week of year-over-year increases. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. But for this week the market is focused on the report at 11 a.m. CDT. The numbers would need to come out outside of the range of expectations on the low side to spark a rally, and if acreage would come in at 91 million or higher, we could quickly challenge the contract lows on Thursday. The record planting intentions was 97.3 million in 2012 which leaves some room for a higher acreage surprise. The average trade guess is for the 2016 U.S. corn acreage to be at 90.047 million acres, the range of estimates is 89 million to 91.5 million. The March 1 Corn stocks are expected to be at 7.822 billion bushels versus 7.75 billion a year ago. The range of estimates is 7.745 billion to 8.1 billion. On the May chart support is at the 50-day moving average at $3.67 then the 20-day at $3.65 which we haved edged below ahead of the report. Resistance is the 100---day at $3.74 we was tested early in the week. SOYBEANS Soybean futures were narrowly mixed at midday with light position-squaring so far. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. Fresh South American news is limited with harvest still continuing on despite the unrest in Brazil potentially affecting the strength of the real, which is showing strength today. The weekly export sales were softer at 271,500 metric tons of beans, 211,600 of meal, and 18,200 of oil. On the May soybean chart we remain above all the major moving averages. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is the 5-month high at $9.17 1/2 which we tested Wednesday followed by the 7-month high at $9.29 1/4. The average trade guess for the 2016 Planting intentions is at 82.95 million acres verus 82.65 million a year ago, the range of estimates is 81.6 million to 84.2 million. The quarterly stocks are estimated to be at 1.569 billion bushels versus 1.327 billion a year ago, the range of expectations is 1.525 billion to 1.7 billion. WHEAT Wheat futures were flat to 3 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with trade staying defensive ahead of the report. The near-term forecast remains warm and dry and the extended forecast scaled back the moisture on some of the model runs Wednesday. The dollar has moved back to the lower end of the range and is close to making new lows for the move this morning. The weekly export sales remain soft at 317,200 metric tons of old crop, 85,600 mt of new crop. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the U.S. acreage down. The average trade guess for the total wheat planted acreate is at 51.659 million acres versus 54.644 million a year ago. Spring wheat is only expected to be down slightly at 12.905 million versus 13.246 million a year ago. The March 1 Quarterly stocks are expected to be at a large 1.356 billion versus 1.140 billion bushels last March. On the May KC chart the 50-day moving average at 4.71 is now resistance after it failed to hold with the $4.50 area as long-term support below that. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.