USDA Reports Summary

By Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA expects corn acres to swell to 93.6 million acres, well above pre-report expectations. Soybean acres are expected to drop slightly from last year to 82.24 million acres, in line with pre-report expectations.

Quarterly corn stocks for March 2016 were pegged at 7.8 billion bushels, up 1% from March 2015. Soybean stocks rose to 1.53 billion bushels, a 15% increase from March 2015.

Grain sorghum stocks blew past pre-report expectations, coming in at 201 million bushels, up 81 million bushels from March 2015.

USDA's March 1 grain stocks estimates should be viewed as neutral for corn and soybeans, but slightly bearish for wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The prospective planting estimates should be viewed as bearish for new-crop corn, neutral for new-crop soybeans and bullish for new-crop wheat, he said.

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For the full Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, visit: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

CORN ACRES

The projected rise in corn acres is due mostly to the likelihood of higher returns in 2016 compared to other crops, USDA said. If realized, USDA's estimate of 93.6 million acres would be the third highest planted acreage since 1944.

In 41 of 48 states, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged. Specifically, USDA expects acreage increases of 400,000 or more compared to last year in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas and North Dakota.

SOYBEAN ACRES

USDA's estimate of 82.24 million acres for 2016 is 1% lower than last year. Compared to 2015, planted acreage intentions are expected to be down or unchanged in 23 of the 31 states. USDA anticipates acreage decreases of 200,000 or more in Louisiana, Minnesota and Mississippi.

If realized, USDA's prediction of planted acreage in North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be the largest on record.

WHEAT ACRES

USDA expects wheat acreage to drop 9% from 2015 to 49.6 million acres. Winter wheat acreage is pegged at 36.2 million acres, an 8% drop from last year, and spring wheat acreage is estimated to drop 14% from 2015 to 11.3 million acres.

Durum acres are predicted to rise 3% from 2015 to 1.995 million acres.

CORN STOCKS

Of the total 7.8 billion bushels of corn stocks, 3.47 bb were stored off-farm, up 3% from last year, and 4.34 bb were stored on-farm, down 1% from last year.

The December 2015-February 2016 disappearance, a measure of demand, is 3.43 billion bushels, down slightly from 3.46 billion bushels during the same period last year.

SOYBEAN STOCKS

Of the 1.53 billion bushels of soybean stocks, 728 million bushels were stored on-farm, up 19% from last year, and 803 million bushels were stored off-farm, up 12% from last year.

The December 2015-February 2016 disappearance is 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from last year.

WHEAT STOCKS

Wheat stocks swelled 20% from last year to 1.37 billion bushels. 320 million bushels were stored on-farm, up 15% from last year, and 1.05 billion bushels were stored off-farm, up 22% from last year.

The December 2015-February 2016 disappearance is a measly 375 million bushels, 4% down from last year.

ANALYSIS

In its Quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA said that U.S. corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 7.808 billion bushels, slightly less than was expected. U.S. soybean stocks on March 1 totaled 1.531 billion bushels, also a little less than expected. USDA said that U.S. wheat stocks on March 1 totaled 1.372 billion bushels, a little more than expected.

"USDA's March 1 grain stocks estimates were neutral for corn and soybeans, but slightly bearish for wheat," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

Meanwhile, in its Prospective Plantings report, USDA estimated that 93.6 million acres of corn will be planted in 2016, much more than expected and up 6% from a year ago. U.S. soybean plantings were estimated at 82.2 million acres, a little less than expected and down 0.5% from a year ago. USDA estimated all-wheat plantings at 49.6 million acres, less than expected and down 9% from a year ago. Winter wheat acres were estimated at 36.2 million acres and spring wheat acres at 11.3 million acres.

"USDA's prospective plantings estimates are bearish for new-crop corn, neutral for new-crop soybeans and bullish for new-crop wheat," Hultman said.

(AG)

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