DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/01 11:21

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/01 11:21 Grains Mixed at Midday Grain trade is narrowly mixed at midday with the market still digesting the USDA Planting Intentions numbers. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are flat to higher with the Dow futures up 40 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 30 higher. Energies are lower with crude up 1.40 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $22. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with some two sided trade during the session with the market still in thought over the higher than expected acreage number and drop to new contract lows. The weekly export sales were solid yesterday at 790,600 metric tons of old crop, the seventh straight week of year over year increases. Ethanol margins are still stable with the break in corn offsetting the weaker crude this morning but the weakness in crude has turned blender margins more negative. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. The March Planting intentions for 2016 are 93.6 million acres which was over 2 million above the high side estimate and 3.5 million greater than the average trade guess. That is significant. Fridays are trend days, so bigger chances for pressure this afternoon. On the May chart support is at the fresh low at $3.47 1/4 with the 10-day at $3.64 resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade setting back from a new nearby high made overnight at 9.18. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. The USDA March Planting Intentions were pegged at 82.24 million acres versus 82.9 expected and 82.7 million a year ago. If corn breaks hard and beans hold up as we move into April the market should be thinking 250,000 to 750,000 acres could swing back to beans from corn. The Quarterly stocks were at 1.531 billion bushels versus 1.569 expected versus 1.327 billion a year ago. So this will have the trade looking for a revised 2015-16 carryover on the April report around 430 million bushels. Fresh South American news is limited with harvest still continuing on despite the unrest in Brazil potentially affecting the strength of the real, which had the real sharply higher yesterday. On the May soybean chart we remain above all the major moving averages. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is the five-month high at $9.18 which we hit overnight followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with volatile trade continuing this morning. The near term forecast remains warm and dry and the extended forecast still has some potential moisture up tick. The dollar has bounced back this morning after the better than expected jobs report. The weekly export sales remain soft at 317,200 metric tons of old crop, 85,600 of new crop. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the U.S. acreage down. The USDA report was friendly with the total wheat acreage pegged at 49.56 million versus 51.7 million expected and 54.6 million in 2015. The spring wheat acreage was only 11.35 million versus 12.9 expected, so this was mostly supportive for Minneapolis, which is already over 40 cents above Kansas City. The March 1 Quarterly Wheat stocks were 1.372 billion versus 1.356 expected which will have the market expecting yet another increase on the carryover number next month. The global over supply of wheat has been bearish and the low prices are discouraging production which is well illustrated on the 2016 March Planting Intentions. On the May Kansas City chart the 50-day moving average at 4.71 remains support after we moved back above it yesterday, holding above that area will be key today with trade 4 cents above it at midday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.