By Chris Clayton
Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporters
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- U.S. corn ending stocks for the crop planted this spring (2016-17) are projected at 2.15 billion bushels and if realized would be the highest since the mid-1980s.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 305 million bushels for new crop beans, which came in below the pre-report average.
Wheat ending stocks for the 2016-17 crop are projected to top 1.029 billion bushels, the highest since the 1987-88 crop year.
The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released Tuesday were the first USDA forecasts looking at ending stocks for the new-crop marketing year.
The U.S. estimates should be viewed as neutral to bearish for new-crop corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The world estimates are neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat, he said.
Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
Production for the new crop is projected at 14.43 billion bushels, which if realized would be 214 million bushels higher than the record 2014-15 crop year.
While the 2016-17 ending stocks are the highest in more than 30 years, USDA stated the stocks-to-use ratio remains far lower than in the mid-1980s.
USDA projects the average corn price for the 2016-17 marketing year will drop to $3.35 per bushel.
For corn planting, USDA stuck to its March 31 prospective planting report at 93.6 million acres.
Globally, new-crop exports are projected to be higher with more exports from Argentina, the European Union and Ukraine offsetting a decline from Brazil. U.S. corn exports are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 175 million from old-crop exports.
SOYBEANS
Production is projected at 3.8 billion bushels, which would be down 129 million from the 2015-16 crop because of lower projected harvest area and yield.
The ending stocks at 305 million bushels are on the low end of pre-report estimates and down 95 million from the old-crop ending stocks.
USDA projects the average soybean price for the 2016-17 soybean crop will come in at $9.10 a bushel, about 20 cents higher than the average for the old-crop prices.
USDA also maintained its prospective planting acreage for soybeans at 82.2 million acres.
Globally, the Brazilian new soybean crop is projected at 103 million metric tons, up 4 million tons because of higher projected acreage and yield. U.S. new-crop exports are projected at 1.885 billion bushels, up 145 million bushels from the 2015-16 marketing year.
WHEAT
All U.S. wheat production is projected at 1.998 billion bushels, down 3% from the 2015-16 crop, which is attributed to a drop in planted acreage.
Winter wheat is forecast at 1.43 billion bushels production, up 4% from last year. Winter wheat yield is projected at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 5.3 bushels from last year and matching 1999 for record yield.
Hard red winter wheat is projected at 863 million bushels, which came in higher than the pre-report analyst averages. Winter wheat thus far has benefitted from ideal spring growing conditions, USDA stated. Yield for all classes of winter wheat are projected to be higher.
USDA projects the average wheat price for 2016-17 will be $4.10 per bushel, down about 85 cents from the old-crop average price.
Total global wheat production is pegged at 727 million metric tons, the second-highest total on record.
ANALYSIS
On the domestic side, USDA estimated the 2016 corn crop at 14.430 billion bushels, more than expected. U.S. ending corn stocks for 2016-17 were estimated at 2.153 billion bushels, less than expected, but the most since the 1980s. The estimate of old-crop ending stocks was reduced from 1.862 billion to 1.803 billion bushels, also less than expected. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as neutral-to-bearish for new-crop corn," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said.
USDA estimated U.S. ending soybean stocks in 2016-17 at 305 million bushels, much less than the 428 million bushels expected and is based on a crop estimate of 3.800 billion bushels. USDA's estimate of old-crop soybean ending stocks was reduced from 445 million to 400 million bushels. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as bullish for soybeans," Hultman said.
USDA estimated U.S. ending wheat stocks at 1.029 billion bushels for 2016-17, more than expected and up a little from the new estimate of 978 million bushels for 2015-16. All wheat production in 2016 is estimated at 1.998 billion bushels. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as bearish for wheat," Hultman said.
On the global side, USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks for 2015-16 was reduced from 208.91 mmt to 207.87 mmt, a little more than expected. Ending corn stocks for 2016-17 were set at 207.04 mmt, less than was expected.
USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2015-16 was reduced from 79.02 mmt to 74.25 mmt, less than expected. Ending soybean stocks for 2016-17 were set at 68.21 mmt, also less than was expected.
USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 239.26 mmt to 242.91 mmt, more than expected. Ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 were set at 257.34 mmt, much more than expected.
"Tuesday's world estimates from USDA are neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat," Hultman said.
**
Editor's note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT Tuesday as he takes a look at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit http://bit.ly/…
| 2015-16 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels) |
| | May | Average | High | Low | April | 2014-15 |
| Corn | 1.803 | 1.825 | 1.890 | 1.630 | 1.862 | 1.731 |
| Soybeans | 0.400 | 0.428 | 0.471 | 0.395 | 0.445 | 0.191 |
| Grain Sorghum | 0.065 | 0.067 | 0.072 | 0.062 | 0.065 | 0.018 |
| Wheat | 0.978 | 0.978 | 1.014 | 0.878 | 0.976 | 0.752 |
| |
| 2016-17 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels) |
| | May | Average | High | Low | Outlook |
| Corn | 2.153 | 2.228 | 2.547 | 1.641 | 1.977 |
| Soybeans | 0.305 | 0.427 | 0.748 | 0.248 | 0.440 |
| Wheat | 1.029 | 0.991 | 1.222 | 0.612 | 0.989 |
| 2016-17 U.S. PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels) |
| | May | Average | High | Low | Outlook | 2015 |
| Corn | 14.430 | 14.151 | 14.431 | 13.590 | 13.825 | 13.601 |
| Soybeans | 3.800 | 3.788 | 3.930 | 3.703 | 3.810 | 3.929 |
| 2016-17 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels) |
| | May | Average | High | Low | 2015-16 |
| All Wheat | 1.998 | 1.975 | 2.086 | 1.902 | 2.052 |
| All Winter Wheat | 1.427 | 1.378 | 1.445 | 1.297 | 1.370 |
| HRW | 0.863 | 0.816 | 0.880 | 0.774 | 0.827 |
| SRW | 0.357 | 0.360 | 0.385 | 0.340 | 0.359 |
| White | 0.191 | 0.200 | 0.223 | 0.180 | 0.184 |
| |
| 2015-16 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) |
| | May | Avg. | High | Low | April | 2014-15 |
| Corn | 207.87 | 206.20 | 209.00 | 200.50 | 208.91 | 207.58 |
| Soybeans | 74.25 | 76.10 | 78.50 | 70.00 | 79.02 | 77.73 |
| Wheat | 242.91 | 239.60 | 241.50 | 235.70 | 239.26 | 214.80 |
| |
| 2016-17 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) |
| | May | Avg. | High | Low |
| Corn | 207.04 | 210.40 | 224.00 | 198.30 |
| Soybeans | 68.21 | 73.40 | 84.70 | 56.30 |
| Wheat | 257.34 | 243.60 | 255.70 | 230.00 |
| |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) |
| | | 2016-17 | | | 2015-16 |
| | | May | | | May | April |
| Brazil corn | 82.0 | | | 81.0 | 84.0 |
| Argentina corn | 34.0 | | | 27.0 | 28.0 |
| |
| Brazil soybeans | 103.0 | | | 99.0 | 100.0 |
| Argentina soybeans | 57.0 | | | 56.5 | 59.0 |
| |
| European Union Wheat | 156.5 | | | 160.0 | 160.0 |
| FSU-12 Wheat | 115.8 | | | 117.6 | 117.6 |
(AG)
© Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.