DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12 11:00

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12 11:00 Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday Soybeans are higher at midday, while corn and wheat are lower pre-report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 115 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 5 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude up 1.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold up $1. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with some selling pressure building ahead of the WASDE report. The extended forecast is showing heat for much of the belt, but good rains were falling again overnight with better rains expected through midweek. The weekly progress number yesterday listed 32% of the crop silking versus the 26% five-year average. Crop ratings improved to 76% good to excellent from 75% last week. The USDA July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates tomorrow are expected to show the new crop carryover average trade guess is at 2.189 billion bushels with a range of 1.883-2.408 billion. The new crop global carryover is expected to be at 206 million metric tons up from 205.1 on the June report. The reduced old-crop Brazilian production / carry in is getting off set by higher U.S. supply-side items. Chart support remains the recent low at $3.46, with resistance the 10-day at $3.64. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7 to 11 cents higher at midday with meal $1 to $2 higher and oil 30 to 40 higher. The report today should keep strong yields in place, but reduced world production may keep the carryout estimates from changing much. The USDA is expected to increase the yield number slightly to 46.8 versus 46.7 bushels per acre on the June report. The range of expectations is 46.4 to 48. The old-crop carryover estimate is at 290 million versus 260 million on the June report, the range of estimates is 170-359 million bushels. World supplies are expected to increase as well, the trade is looking for 67.5 million metric tons for the new crop soybean carryover number versus 66.3 on the alst report. The range of estimates is 64.5-73.7. The weekly progress report showed blooming at 40% versus the 31% five-year average. Crop conditions improved by 1 percentage point to 71% good to excellent. On the November soybean chart support is at the $10.21 recent low with resistance at the 10.81 50-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower at midday with trade waiting for direction from report reaction with a calm trading session so far. Harvest should continue to move along with some isolated weather delays in the northern hemisphere. USDA is expected to continue to show large domestic and global supplies at 11. The market question to answer is whether or not the bearish supply side fundamentals are priced-in. The domestic wheat carryover is expected to come in at 1.101 billion bushels versus 1.05 on the last report and 982 million on old crop. USDA is expected to again raise world ending stocks, the new crop estimate is 259.2 million metric ton versus 257.8 on the June report. Harvest progress for winter wheat was at 68% complete, 2% ahead of normal, with spring wheat 70% good to excellent, down 2 percentage point, with heading at 91% vs. 64% on average. On the Kansas City December chart, support is at the $4.24 contract low reached Wednesday with resistance at the $4.42 10-day moving average. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.