USDA Reports Flash

By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA bumped up 2016-17 corn and soybean production as well as new-crop ending stocks for both corn and soybeans in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for July.

USDA pegged corn production at 14.54 billion bushels and soybeans at 3.88 billion bushels with both forecasts coming in near the average range of pre-report estimates. While bumping up production and ending stocks for both crops, USDA left the yields for both crops unchanged.

USDA's U.S. estimates are slightly bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. Tuesday's world estimates are bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bullish for wheat, he said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on the reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

With production at a record, USDA also increased corn ending stocks for 2016-17 to 2.08 billion bushels, up 73 million bushels from the June WASDE estimate. Despite raising the production estimate by 110 million bushels from June, USDA left the yield estimate at 168 bushels an acre.

SOYBEANS

USDA's 3.88 billion bushel production figure showed an increase in production forecast of 80 million bushels from the June report. USDA increased ending stocks for the new crop to 290 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from the June forecast as well. While boosting production, USDA kept the yield estimate at 46.7 bushels per acre.

WHEAT

USDA's winter wheat production numbers may surprise analysts, given the forecast of a 1.627 billion-bushel crop, which is up 8% from last month's forecast and 19% higher than last year's winter wheat crop. The winter wheat production is higher than any of the pre-report estimates. The big bump was in hard red winter wheat, which is pegged at just over 1 billion bushels.

USDA also pegged the winter wheat yield at 53.9 bushels per acre, up 11.4 bushels from last year.

The bump in winter wheat production also pushed the July forecast of all wheat production to 2.26 billion bushels, which also was higher than any of the pre-report projections.

WORLD ESTIMATES

USDA lowered Brazil's corn production to an estimated 70 million metric tons, down 7.5 million tons from the June estimate. The report bumped up Argentina's corn production to 28 million metric tons.

For soybeans, USDA pegged Brazil's soybean production at 96.5 million metric tons, down 0.5 million metric tons from June. The Argentina soybean estimates remain unchanged from June at 56.5 million metric tons.

ANALYSIS

On the domestic side, USDA increased its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 from 2.008 billion to 2.081 billion bushels, which was a little less than expected, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The yield estimate was kept unchanged. "Tuesday's U.S. report is slightly bullish for corn," Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2016-17 was increased from 260 million to 290 million bushels, as expected. The yield estimate was kept unchanged. "Tuesday's report is neutral for soybeans," Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 was increased from 1.050 billion to 1.101 billion bushels, which roughly as expected. "Tuesday's report is neutral for wheat," Hultman said.

On the world side, USDA's estimate of global ending corn stocks for 2016-17 was increased from 205.12 mmt to 208.39 mmt, more than expected. USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2016-17 was increased from 66.31 mmt to 67.10 mmt, slightly less than expected. USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 was reduced from 257.84 mmt to 253.70 mmt and was less than expected.

"Tuesday's world estimates from USDA are bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bullish for wheat," Hultman said.

(AG)

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