Portland Grain Review 07/14

July 14, 2016 Portland Price Trends 07-01-15 08-01-15 06-01-16 07-07-16 07-14-16 #1 SWW (bu) 6.60 5.67 5.35 5.10 5.30 White Club 7.35 6.42 5.35 5.10 5.30 DNS 14% 7.47 6.19 6.29 5.95 6.00 HRW 11.5% 6.67 5.60 5.41 4.87 5.12 #2 Corn (ton) 180.00 160.00 179.00 159.00 165.00 #2 Barley 150.00 159.00 145.00 140.00 135.00 Wheat..Firming basis levels and slightly better futures markets helped west coast wheat markets recover some ground this week. Basis levels on white wheat continued their upward trek against Chicago, climbing nearly 20 cents from last week to near 100 over; 30 cents above a year ago and double the five-year average for mid-July. Hard red winter basis levels also strengthened 20 cents from a week ago and stand 20 cents above five- year averages. Hard red spring basis held steady through the week and is trading near year-ago levels but 40 cents under the five-year average. A lack of farmer selling against recent export business is helping to drive basis on white and hard red winter higher. Weekly Sales...USDA weekly export sales showed a setback in U.S. wheat demand relative to the recent strong pace. Sales of 11.7 mb came in 19 mb under last week and less than half the four-week average, putting overall demand at 322 mb which is still 35% ahead of last year and right on-track with the five-year average pace. Hard red winter was top seller with 8.8 mb for the week, followed by hard red spring with 3.4 mb. Soft white wheat saw a cancellation pull 500,000 bushels from year-to-date sales. With the exception of soft red winter, all classes of wheat remain well ahead of a year ago and above the five-year average pace. Crop Report...USDA acknowledged improved crop potential for the Pacific Northwest region, raising yields for Washington and Idaho from last month on winter wheat and placing spring wheat yields above last year. A 2 bpa increase for Washingtion and Idaho winter wheat places the weighted yield for the three states at 71 bpa for winter wheat, up more than 9 bpa from last year. Production is forecast to be up 36 mb from last year and the best in three years. Initial spring wheat yield is forecast to improve 7 bpa from last year but lower plantings in Washington are expected to hold spring wheat production 13% below the five-year average for the 3 states. -Norm Ruhoff Extension Economist University of Idaho CALS-AERS Copyright 2016 DTN/Telvent. All Rights Reserved.