DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/28 11:31

DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/28 11:31 All Grains Lower at Midday A strong dollar has corn and beans down 4 to 8 cents at midday in slow trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are slow and lower with the Dow futures down 25. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 45 higher. Energies are higher with crude up 22. Livestock is mixed with cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $1. CORN Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with futures giving back some of Tuesday's gains. Some are calling this a turnaround-Tuesday-type day in this abbreviated week of trade. The weather outlook for Brazil is not bad enough to spark a bigger rally at this juncture but the weather has the market's attention. Outside markets are negative with the dollar firmer, but crude is trying to gain some upside momentum at midday. On the March chart, the 20-day moving averages at $3.53 3/4 is now resistance, we traded above it yesterday but back below it at midday. If we can find strength and get back above it, it could bring in chart buying late. But we are also challenging chart support at midday at the $3.50 100-day. A close below here would be negative on the chart; obviously the tight nature of the major moving average illustrates the strongly sideways trend that we are in; the three month range has been less than 30 cents. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade backing away from some early follow-through strength. Meal is $1 lower, and bean oil is 35 points lower. Soybean futures trade will continue to react to South American weather forecasts with warmer and drier weather expected for much of Brazil in the week ahead. Early Brazilian harvest is showing strong yields but the majority of the crop has a long way to go until maturity, with the next two months the most important growing weather months. Argentina is still working on wrapping up planting and has switched to being too wet versus dry two weeks ago. Trade will continue to react forecast to forecast. The weekly export inspections were strong again at 1.701 million metric tons yesterday, which should keep bean basis firm due to the huge demand so far this crop year. On the March chart, support is at the $10.04 200-day then the $9.94 100-day moving average. Resistance is at the $10.23 10-day then the $10.34 20-day. Expect active trade this afternoon. WHEAT Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower at midday with futures giving back some of the knee jerk Tuesday gains. The dollar is testing the high end of the range today which helped turn the market lower light follow-through buying. Weather for the winter wheat areas looks fairly non-eventful for the wheat belt, but some dryness has started to build. The Southern Hemisphere harvest should continue to move along with good yields adding to the world supply situation with some disruptive rains in Australia. On the Kansas City March chart we are testing support at midday at the $4.10 20-day moving average. The next support level is at the $3.99 low. The 10-day at $4.12 1/2 is chart resistance then the 50-day at $4.23. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.