DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 11:09

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 11:09 Corn, Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower in Midday Trade Trade is mixed ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and quarterly Grain Stocks reports with corn and wheat higher, soybeans leaking lower to new five-month lows. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are flat to lower with the Dow futures down 25 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 9 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude down $.10. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up .40. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light, short profit-taking ahead of the USDA acreage and stocks reports coming at 11 a.m. CDT. Trade has priced in some bearish information ahead of the numbers, especially with beans. Ethanol margins remain stable with board margins around our 2017 highs. The average acre guess for the USDA March Planting Intentions number is 91.034 million acres with a range of 89.7 ma to 92.5 ma. March 1 quarterly stocks are expected to be at 8.534 billion bushels on a range of 8.205 bb to 8.9 bb; this is up from 7.822 billion a year ago. Moving to next week, the focus should be on planting and early field-work weather, but for now let's expect an active trade around the numbers. On the May chart, support is at the $3.52 late December low. Resistance is the 10-day at $3.59, which is being testing Friday morning; next resistance is the 20-day at $3.63. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 6 to 7 cents lower at midday with progressively softening trade ahead of the reports. Meal is $2 lower and oil is 40 points lower. Chart pressure and heavy supply side fundamentals continue to weigh on beans. Long liquidation does appear to be carrying trade lower versus expectations for bearish USDA numbers. This pressure is pricing-in some bigger acreage. The average trade guess for 2017 U.S. soybean acreage is at 88.128 ma; the range of estimates is 85.9 ma to 90.2 ma. March 1 quarterly stocks are expected to be at 1.684 bb, range is 1.627 bb to 1.885 bb. On the May soybean chart, nearby support is hard to identify with this lower trend. The one-year low is at $9.37 1/4, which is key chart support at this juncture, with fresh lows for the move made Friday morning at $9.54 1/2. Resistance is at the 10-day and lowest major moving average at $9.80. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 cents to 6 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with trade seeing some light, short profit- taking ahead of the numbers. Minneapolis trade is showing the most strength again with smaller acres anticipated. Warmer weather following the rain should push growth along. Cold threats appear limited, then once we are in the second week of April we are moving out of frost or freeze risk. On the quarterly report, stocks are expected to be 1.627 bb, with a range of 1.450 bb to 1.721 bb. Spring wheat acreage is expected to be at 11.27 ma with a range of 9.9 to 12.2 ma versus the 11.605 ma 2016 acreage. On the May, Kansas City contract support is at the daily low at $4.17 1/2, then the $4.11 1/2, contract low. Resistance is at the 10-day at $4.27. Wheat is now over 50 cents below our nine-month high printed in mid-February and not far from the contract lows; this echoes the large historic supply side fundamentals we have for wheat. The stocks report will be a reminder of that. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.