DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/07 11:36

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/07 11:36 All Grains Lower at Midday Wheat and soybeans are the downside leaders at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 190 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 18 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are flat with gold up 0.60. CORN Corn trade is 4 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back off the recent highs with better U.S. planting prospects and better rain potential in Brazil. Rains will slow planting through the middle of the belt in spots this week, but the higher temps should boost progress of the large amount of corn planted up until then. The second crop areas of Brazil should catch some showers to mitigate some stress. Ethanol margins will need futures to continue their recent rally, but the firmer energy complex should help. Planting progress will likely be just behind normal, but emergence should be catching up faster with the temps. The weekly export inspections were very strong at 1.915 million metric tons. Thursday we will see the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) with the new crop balance sheets expected. On the July chart we are above the 20-day at $3.96 which remains support, with resistance the fresh high at $4.08 1/4 scored Thursday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 16 to 19 cents lower at midday with trade fading from the early two-sided trade with trade concerns and South American harvest still weighing on the market. Meal is $8 to $9 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points higher overnight. The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term, allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper ral encouraging sales and export business, along with the weaker Argentina peso as the push interest rates to 40%. Meal is just below $390 a ton with crush margins narrowing. Planting progress should remain at average or better. The weekly export inspections were decent at 533,667 metric tons. On the July chart trade is back below the 100-day at $10.27 with the weakness with the next level of support the 200-day at $10.16, which we are testing at midday. WHEAT Wheat trade is 10 to 14 cents lower at midday with trade continuing liquidation after the reversal on Friday to open the week. The Kansas wheat tour wrapped up with a final average of 37.0 BPA and the project smallest crop since 1989. The dollar rally will likely continue to limit upside, with the index at 92.6. Warmer weather should help to boost maturity with the crop still well behind normal, with further stress likely if not combined with rain, especially for the western edge of the plains, with shower potential focused on the more northern winter wheat growing areas. Spring wheat growing areas look more open as they catch up further. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far with warm dry start, but a wetter nearby forecast. Black Sea values are moving back towards $202 a ton. Weekly conditions will likely be steady with maturity catching up towards average, and spring wheat planting still well behind normal. The weekly export inspections were decent at 327,662 metric tons. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 20-day at $5.27 support after we moved through it this last week, with resistance the $5.70 area of the fresh highs. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.