DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 11:29

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 11:29 Grains Lower at Midday Corn flat, wheat and soybeans lower at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 65. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 10 higher. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.25. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 1.00. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with quiet two-sided trade so far. Early harvest should begin to expand where the rains moderate with much of the belt drying back out this week with warmer temperatures. Significant drying is needed in some areas. Ethanol margins remain tight for producers with futures still below 1.30 a gallon with flat action this morning, while blenders remain in good shape margin wise. Corn basis has held up pretty well in recent days but more harvest pressure will work in. The USDA announced 132,000 metric tons of corn sold to South Korea on the daily wire. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions and maturity still ahead of normal but are delayed until Tuesday afternoon due to technical issues. Expectations for the WASDE report on Wednesday are for corn yield at 177.7 BPA for production of 14.524 billion, down slightly from last month, with ending stocks at 2.027 billion for old crop, and 1.626 billion for new, and world stocks at 154.3 million for new crop. On the December chart support is at the 10-day at $3.63 with the 20-day at $3.68 resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7 to 9 cents lower with trade remaining range bound in quiet action with a 192,000 metric tons of soybean exports canceled by unknown. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Basis is expected to see more pressure as storage space will be at a premium once harvest gets rolling forward with this week likely to push maturity ahead with rains lingering in the north. Crush margins remain strong with the recent meal rally, along with outstanding biodiesel margins. Early planting in South America will be getting underway soon with conditions on the dry side going in, and the Brazil and Argentina currencies remain historically cheap. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions, and maturity still ahead of normal when released this afternoon. The expectations for the WASDE report are for yield at 52.4, and production at 4.653 billion bushels, up from last month, with carryout at 426 million on old crop, and new crop at 826 million bushels, with world stocks 107.7 million metric tons vs. 95.7 on old crop. On the November chart support is the 10-day at $8.40 which we are just below at midday with the recent lows at $8.29 below that, with the 20-day at $8.58 as resistance if trade can firm later in the session. WHEAT Wheat trade fell off the early highs, and is trade 5 to 9 cents lower at midday with some forecasts trending wetter for Russia and Australia. The U.S. dollar is chopping along at the lower end of the range but firmer this morning. Matif wheat is weaker as well. Russia remains mostly dry into planting with near-term exports expected to remain aggressive. Australia looks to have more mixed weather in the near term with longer-term dryness still an issue as we get closer to harvest there, and crop expectations still dropping. The WASDE report is looking for world wheat stocks at 273.2 million metric tons for old crop, and 257.9 for new, down slightly from last month on new crop. On the December Kansas City chart, we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.06 with resistance the 10-day at $5.32. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.