By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter
OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizers tracked by DTN for the first week of March 2019 show lower prices. This marks the second week in a row a majority of the fertilizer prices have been lower.
Five of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month, but none were down a notable amount. DAP had an average price of $$510/ton, MAP $534/ton, urea $403/ton, UAN28 $270/ton and UAN32 $317/ton.
Two fertilizers were higher than the prior month but neither were up by a significant amount. Potash had an average price of $386/ton and anhydrous $596/ton.
One fertilizer, 10-34-0, was unchanged from the previous month. Starter fertilizer had an average price of $470/ton.
On the cost of N/per pound, urea is at $0.44, anhydrous $0.36, UAN28 $0.48 and UAN32 $0.50.
Predicting anything, whether it's sports events or presidential elections is often a difficult task. But what if there was a way to predict retail fertilizer prices? According to one agricultural economist, this just might be possibility.
Kansas State University Agricultural Economist Gregg Ibendahl created a model to help predict what the anhydrous ammonia price might be. Forecasting a price is possible since the price of anhydrous ammonia is positively correlated with the price of both oil and corn. He wrote a report titled, "Predicting Fertilizer Prices," where he explains how the model works.
To read the full report, click on this link:
http://agmanager.info/…
"Anhydrous ammonia is positively correlated with the corn price and the oil price because these two products represent something about the demand and supply of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer," Ibendahl said. "Economic theory tells us that higher price for an output will cause producers to produce more by using more of the production inputs."
A regression model was developed to help Ibendahl predict the anhydrous ammonia price, with corn prices representing the demand for ammonia and the oil price representing the supply for ammonia.
Ibendahl predict the anhydrous price for November will be $557/ton.
"Going forward in 2019, producers are likely to see some decreases in fertilizers prices later on during the year as oil prices have declined some from their fall/winter peaks of 2018," he said. "The model to predict anhydrous ammonia prices is based on a nine-month lag in oil prices."
Considering some higher oil prices from 2018 still have to show up in the model, fertilizer prices may not start to decline for a few months yet and may actually increase a little, he added.
Ibendahl noted other fertilizer prices are likely to decrease during 2019 as there is a strong correlation between anhydrous and other fertilizers.
While all fertilizers were higher compared to last month, none of the fertilizers were up a notable amount. DAP had an average price of $512/ton, MAP $534/ton, potash $383/ton, urea $407/ton, 10-34-0 $462/ton, anhydrous $580/ton, UAN28 $270/ton and UAN32 $305/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.44/lb.N, anhydrous $0.35/lb.N, UAN28 $0.48/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.
All eight major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year. MAP is 6% higher, both DAP and urea are 10% more expensive, both potash and 10-34-0 are 11% higher, UAN28 is 16% more expensive, UAN32 is 17% higher and anhydrous is 19% more expensive.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.
DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):
| DRY |
| Date Range | DAP | MAP | POTASH | UREA |
| Mar 5-9 2018 | 463 | 503 | 349 | 367 |
| Apr 2-6 2018 | 478 | 508 | 352 | 370 |
| Apr 30-May 4 2018 | 485 | 505 | 353 | 368 |
| May 28-June 1 2018 | 483 | 504 | 354 | 364 |
| Jun 25-29 2018 | 485 | 505 | 354 | 364 |
| Jul 23-27 2018 | 486 | 504 | 356 | 366 |
| Aug 20-24 2018 | 487 | 514 | 356 | 364 |
| Sep 17-21 2018 | 494 | 520 | 362 | 384 |
| Oct 15-19 2018 | 498 | 518 | 365 | 405 |
| Nov 12-16 2018 | 500 | 530 | 368 | 407 |
| Dec 10-14 2018 | 505 | 533 | 375 | 407 |
| Jan 7-11 2019 | 508 | 533 | 381 | 407 |
| Feb 4-8 2019 | 511 | 536 | 385 | 408 |
| Mar 4-8 2019 | 510 | 534 | 386 | 403 |
| Liquid |
| Date Range | 10-34-0 | ANHYD | UAN28 | UAN32 |
| Mar 5-9 2018 | 422 | 499 | 234 | 272 |
| Apr 2-6 2018 | 425 | 508 | 239 | 274 |
| Apr 30-May 4 2018 | 431 | 510 | 241 | 277 |
| May 28-June 1 2018 | 439 | 504 | 241 | 276 |
| Jun 25-29 2018 | 440 | 504 | 242 | 277 |
| Jul 23-27 2018 | 442 | 501 | 243 | 279 |
| Aug 20-24 2018 | 446 | 481 | 233 | 271 |
| Sep 17-21 2018 | 448 | 494 | 239 | 278 |
| Oct 15-19 2018 | 457 | 494 | 243 | 283 |
| Nov 12-16 2018 | 457 | 519 | 245 | 287 |
| Dec 10-14 2018 | 455 | 552 | 261 | 302 |
| Jan 7-11 2019 | 461 | 573 | 267 | 304 |
| Feb 4-8 2019 | 470 | 596 | 271 | 318 |
| Mar 4-8 2019 | 470 | 596 | 270 | 317 |
Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN
(BAS/CZ)
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