DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/10 11:42

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/10 11:42 Grains Mixed at Midday Trade returns to mixed at midday after initial selling. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 190 higher. The dollar index is 20 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude 0.10 higher. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold 13.10 lower. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny higher at midday with trade consolidating near the two-week lows. Tonight, trade is expected to react to the weekly progress and first ratings then react to the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report tomorrow at 11. The situation with Mexico seems to be resolved for the moment, and news with China progressing status quo with the past month. The forecast looks to be cooler short term with moisture mixed. Ethanol margins are improved slightly for producer and blender so far but remains tight with ethanol edging lower this a.m. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days as movement slows. The WASDE report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 2.165 billion bushels, new crop at 1.731 billion, down from 2.485 on the May report. The new crop world average trade guess is at 323.6 million metric tons of old, and 301.60 million of new versus 314.71 new on the May report. The weekly export inspections were OK at 850,647 metric tons. The weekly progress report is expected to show planting being in the 80-84% range, and the first conditions on the lower end of the historical range for good to excellent at 60-65%, but with the wet weather there is always a change of a lower rating. On the July nearby chart support is the $4.02 20-day moving average with trade below the 10-day at 4.21. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with buying returning during the day session with rangebound action ongoing. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall. South American currencies have firmed as they control the world export business but remain on the lower end of the range. Field work should expand in many areas into midweek. The corn/soybean ratio has been more stable here as more crop insurance days pass. The WASDE report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 1.010 billion bushels, and new 987 million, and world stocks at 113.10 million metric tons of old crop, and 114.70 million of new. The weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 714,627 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report should move us past 50% complete with a condition report still likely another week off. The July chart support is the 20-day at $8.47, with the trade testing the 50-day at $8.69 before fading again. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower with trade following the lead of the row crops this morning with spread trade fairly stable to open the week. The Kansas City/Chicago spread narrowed to 26 cents before swinging back to 58 cents this week, with wider action before flattening a little to open the week. The heavy rains should be more limited for the Plains in the near term with the potential to return as harvest will try to build momentum. The dollar has bounced back sharply this morning but recent rallies have faltered. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. The WASDE report is expected to show old crop carryout at 1.113 billion, and new at 1.115 billion domestically, with world stocks at 274.6 million metric tons old crop, and 288.20 million of new. The weekly export inspections were decent at 464,779 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions and slow maturity with winter wheat, and planting wrapped up and steady conditions for spring wheat. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 20-day at 4.39, with trade just below the 100-day at $4.56. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.