DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/30 11:26

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/30 11:26 Broadly Weaker Midday Trade Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat is 2 cents to 6 cents lower. Outside markets are mixed. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 40 lower. The dollar index is 24 higher. Interest rate products are mostly firmer. Energies are flat with crude .30 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are narrowly mixed. CORN Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower, giving back Monday's gains after the crop condition report. Outside markets are neutral overnight. Cooler weather looks to prevail for the most part as we head into August with better rains in spots. Ethanol margins remain under pressure with more plants starting to be idled again with futures trying to hold the $1.50 area, moving down to $1.48 this morning. Basis has started to soften in some areas as well with harvest starting in the Southeast U.S. with softer spreads taking Sept to Dec back to a dime before narrowing slightly this morning. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good-to-excellent ratings at 58% up 1 percentage point on the week, with 58% silking vs. 83% on average and 13% in the dough stage vs. 23% on average. The forecasts are not bringing in fresh buying but the market will continue to react to any fresh changes in the forecasts. On the September nearby chart support is the fresh low at $4.10 1/2 with the 100-day below that at $4.05, with resistance at the 10-day at $4.23 with oversold conditions still in place. SOYBEANS Soybean futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade optimism fading yet again. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. World export demand remains slow, with the dollar keeping the U.S. at a disadvantage. Trade negotiation progress looks to be at a standstill again, which will make the secondary trade payments more likely. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and pod fill with immediate stress looking more limited with the expected cool down. The Brazilian real remains very cheap relative to the dollar. The weekly Crop Progress report showed conditions unchanged at 54% good to excellent, with 57% blooming vs. 79% on average, 21% setting pods vs. 45% on average. The slowness of the crop should continue to garner some light concern in the marketplace with more susceptibility to damage if an early frost would occur. The September chart support is the lower Bollinger band at 8.77, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.94, with 200-day at $9.15 the next level up. WHEAT Wheat futures are 2 to 6 cents lower with trade following the lead of the row crops at midday. The KC/Chicago spread has narrowed this morning but remains near the highs at 66 cents. The corn/HRW spread is back to 21 cents. Chicago trade is down to 6 cents of carry with the intra-month spreads slightly weaker Monday morning. Winter wheat harvest is entering the final stages with spring wheat still a little off from hitting full swing, while Europe and the Black Sea continue to make progress. The dollar is near the highs for the year, limiting U.S. competitiveness on the world market. Spring wheat conditions are down 3 percentage points to 73% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, with 96% headed vs. 98% on average, with winter wheat 74% harvested vs. 86% on average. The September KC chart support is the recent low at $4.26 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.35 which we are just below, with the 20-day at 4.41 the next round up. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.