DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/31 11:42

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/31 11:42 Broadly Weaker Trade Midday Wednesday Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 9 to 10 cents lower and wheat is 3 cents to 8 cents lower. Outside markets are mixed. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 6 lower. The U.S. dollar index is 7 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat with crude .35 higher. Livestock futures are weaker. Precious metals are weaker with gold 1.50 lower. CORN Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower with early gains fading as futures are oversold with fresh lows for the move due to no weather issues and chart selling. Cooler weather looks to prevail for the most part as we head into August with better rains in spots leaving some areas short. The weekly numbers had ethanol production down 8,000 barrels per day, with stocks 779,000 barrels higher, up 13% year over year. Basis has started to soften in some areas with harvest starting in the Southeast U.S. with softer spreads taking Sept to Dec back to a dime before narrowing slightly Wednesday morning. On the September nearby chart support is the fresh low at $4.04 3/4 with 4.00 below that; resistance is at the 10-day average of $4.20 with oversold conditions still in place. SOYBEANS Soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents lower with little trade deal progress and other fresh news lacking. Meal futures are $1 to $2 higher and oil futures are 30 to 40 points lower, with crush margins still steady and meal holding $300 on the September contract so far. World export demand remains slow, with the dollar keeping the U.S. at a disadvantage. However, a sale of 104,500 metric tons (mt) to unknown was published on USDA's daily reporting system. Trade progress looks to be at a standstill again, which will make the secondary trade payments more likely. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and pod fill season with immediate stress looking more limited with the expected cool down. The slowness of the crop should continue to garner some light concern in the marketplace with more susceptibility to damage if an early frost would occur. The September chart support is the fresh low at $8.73, with the next level up the 100-day average of $8.92, with the 200-day average of $9.15 the next level up. WHEAT Wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents lower with trade drifting lower on spillover from row crops, ahead of the anticipated Fed decision Wednesday afternoon. The KC/Chicago spread has narrowed Wednesday morning but remains near the highs at 62 cents. The corn/HRW spread is back to 22 cents. Chicago trade is down to 5 cents of carry with the intra-month spreads slightly stronger Wednesday morning. Winter wheat harvest is entering the final stages with spring wheat still a little off from hitting full swing, while Europe and the Black Sea continue to make progress. The dollar is near the highs for the year, limiting U.S. competitiveness on the world market, but a rate cut from the Fed could trigger some selling. The September KC chart support is the recent low at $4.26 with the first resistance the 10-day average of 4.34, which we are just below; the 20-day average of 4.41 is the next round up. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.