DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/05 11:40

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/05 11:40 Grains Mixed at Midday Volatile trade to start the week, with trade moving higher at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are sharply weaker with the Dow 550 lower. The dollar index is 47 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude .40 lower. Livestock trade are mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold 14.00 higher. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher with trade selling off after China retaliated in the ongoing trade war with reductions to agricultural purchases, and currency devaluation while weather is more supportive. Cooler weather looks to prevail for the most part as we head into August with mixed rains with the Eastern Corn Belt driest. Ethanol margins remain poor with stocks continuing to balloon, which will likely idle more plants in the near term with ethanol futures edging slightly higher but remaining below $1.50 as summer driving season ends. Basis has started to steady after the recent weakness in some areas as well with harvest starting in the SE U.S. with softer spreads taking Sept to Dec back to a dime. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 631,289 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions with maturity still struggling to close the gap. On the September nearby chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.93, which we tested overnight, then the $3.87 1/4 low. Resistance is at the 200-day at $4.00, which we are above at midday, with the 100-day at 4.06 the next round up. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with China telling state-owned companies to forgo U.S. purchases amid the trade war, with little other action. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 20 to 30 lower. World export demand remains slow, with all currencies sliding this a.m. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and pod-fill season with immediate stress looking more limited with the expected cool down. The slowness of the crop should continue to garner some light concern in the marketplace with more susceptibility to damage if an early frost would occur. Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.029 million metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to be steady with with maturity still well behind normal. The September chart support is the fresh low at $8.41, with the next level up the 10-day at 8.76. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday with the Friday move unwinding amid the trade uncertainty before popping back to unchanged. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is steady near the highs this a.m. The corn/HRW spread is back to 17 cents. Chicago trade is down to 1 cent of carry after briefly inverting this a.m. Winter wheat harvest is entering the final stages with spring wheat still a little off from hitting full swing with South Dakota rains slowing things in the short term, while Europe and the Black Sea continues to make progress with the strong ruble hindering Russia. The dollar is weaker along with all the other currencies. Weekly export inspections were soft at 395,316 metric tons, with winter wheat harvest past 85%, and spring wheat conditions steady. The September Kansas City chart support is the recent low at $4.13 1/2 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.30, with the 20-day at 4.38 the next round up. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.