DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/06 11:38

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/06 11:38 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is lower at midday and lower most of the morning after mixed overnight trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 50 higher. The dollar index is 6 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude $0.15 lower. Livestock trade are mostly lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold 7.50 higher. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower with trade working to consolidate back over $4.00 nearby with another good close needed to support technical buying. Cooler weather looks to prevail for the most part as we head into August with mixed rains with parts of Illinois catching some overnight. Ethanol margins remain poor with producers reporting poor earnings with more plants needing to be idled, and futures edging lower this morning. Basis has started to steady after the recent weakness in some areas as well with harvest starting in the SE U.S. with spreads firming slightly. Weekly crop progress had conditions off 1% to 57% good to excellent, and 13% poor to very poor, with 23% in the dough vs. 42% on average, and 78% silking vs. 93% on average. On the September nearby chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.89 which we are tested overnight, then the $3.87 1/4 low. Resistance is at the 100-day at 4.06 which we closed just below, then the 10-day at $4.08. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower with the market still working to make sense of the trade developments and crop development remaining slow. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil 10 to 20 points lower. World export demand remains slow, with the U.S. disadvantage persisting. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and pod-fill season with immediate stress looking more limited with the expected cool down. Weekly crop progress is expected was steady at 54% good to excellent, and 13% poor to very poor, with 72% blooming vs. 87% on average, and 37% setting pods vs. 63% on average keeping maturity concerns in place. The September chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.49, with the next level up the 10-day at 8.74. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 10 cents lower with trade again giving back gains and remaining in the lower end of the range. The Kansas City/Chicago spread remains near the highs, just below 70 cents with trade narrowing a little this a.m. The corn/HRW spread is back to 14 cents this morning. Chicago trade has went back to a carry after trading to even. Winter wheat harvest is entering the final stages with spring wheat still a little off from hitting full swing with South Dakota rains slowing things in the short term, while Europe and the Black Sea continues to make progress with the strong ruble hindering Russia with export slowing from July, while the dollar elevated overall. Crop progress winter wheat harvest at 82% vs. 92% on average, with spring wheat unchanged at 73% good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor with 2% cut vs. 12% on average. The September Kansas City chart support is the recent low at $4.13 1/2 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.30, with the 20-day at 4.38 the next round up. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.