DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/27 11:46

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/27 11:46 Grains Mixed at Midday New crop July 2020 Chicago wheat is back above $5 at midday, corn and beans are seeing light harvest pressure. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is slightly lower. The dollar index is 12 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade has cattle higher with hogs mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $13. CORN Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower chopping above $3.70 in quiet midday trade; the high overnight was $3.73 so no challenge of the $3.77 1/2 one-month high printed on Wednesday. Outside markets are slightly negative, with light harvest pressure mentioned as well. Rains will slow early harvest in many areas in the short term, but temps should remain warm for much of the belt to have harvest trying to catch up to a normal pace in October. Several feet of snow are expected in higher elevations in and around Montana. Ethanol margins remain stable with blender margins taking a hit as unleaded values pull back and ethanol futures edge slightly lower. With the weekly export sales soft at 494,000 metric tons yesterday that demand news weighted on the positive chart momentum we had coming into Thursday. On the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.67 with the $3.77 1/2 1-month high is nearby support then the upper Bollinger Band at 3.80. SOYBEANS Soybeans is 5 cents lower at midday with a flat tone. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil down around 40 points. The market traded down to the November 50-day and 20-day moving averages at $8.81 this is also the area of our two-week low, so an important chart number to watch this afternoon. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument appears to need more news following the million ton-plus weekly number yesterday and the optimistic news that has us expecting some near-term China business. Economically U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but the ral remains cheap vs. the dollar even with recent firmer action. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South America has the beginnings of planting underway with mixed rains this week. On the November chart, the moving averages are clustered around $8.81, which is chart support with the upper Bollinger Band remaining resistance at $9.09. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents higher at midday with Chicago wheat leading; where Minneapolis has been the weaker market with mixed trade. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 81 cents and may try to have a new high close on this out of balance historic relationship. The December contracts had Kansas City 40 cents 16 months ago and we were even about six months ago. The corn/HRW spread is back to the 40 cent area knocking wheat back out of rations. The spring wheat strength should boost higher protein bids if sustained with flatter trade heading towards the weekend. Winter wheat planting should expand more this week, but the market is not providing incentives to plant any more hard red winter acres than necessary. The sharply stronger dollar will limit upside if sustained, with the upper end of the range being held for now. The weekly export sales were low yesterday news that appears to still be limiting gains at midday. The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $4.01, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.16. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BE) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.