DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/30 11:07

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/30 11:07 Wheat Mixed at Midday Soybeans are pushing higher ahead of the Stocks report, with corn and wheat mixed. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $30. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher in quiet action ahead of the report with trade taking a wait-and-see report. Outside markets are negative with the dollar stronger and crude weaker. Rains will slow early harvest in many areas in the short term, and colder air will be working in during the near term. Ethanol margins remain stable with blender margins taking a hit as unleaded values pull back and ethanol futures edge slightly lower. The USDA announced 120,000 metric tons of corn sold to Mexico. The report is expected to find 2.428 billion bushels of corn on the average guess with a range of 2.3 to 2.5 billion. Weekly export inspections were soft at 399,376 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show some harvest expansion, but overall maturity and progress still lagging a bit, with steady conditions. On the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.67 with the $3.77 1/2 one-month high is nearby support then the upper Bollinger Band at 3.80. SOYBEANS Soybeans are 12 to 14 cents higher at midday with trade moving back to the upper end of the recent range ahead of the report. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher with oil 25 to 35 points higher. Crush margins remain good, but sustained trade progress is needed to get the market more excited. Economically U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but the ral remains cheap vs. the dollar even with recent firmer action. Bean basis remains flat in the interior until harvest expands more. South America has the beginnings of planting underway with mixed rains this week. The report is expected to show stocks at 982 million bushels on a range of 940 million to 1.035 billion. Weekly export inspections were inline with recent weeks at 982,288 metric tons. Crop progress should show steady conditions, and a harvest number a few points behind normal. On the November chart are right the moving averages clustered in the $8.81 that is chart support with the upper Bollinger Band remaining resistance at $9.09. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher at midday with spring wheat regaining the lead to start the week. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 81 cents with flat trade so far. The corn/hrw spread has narrowed slightly to 36 cents this a.m. The spring wheat strength should boost higher protein bids if sustained into fall. Winter wheat planting should expand more this week, but the market is not providing incentives to plant any more hard red winter acres than necessary, while Australia continues to see a bit of dry weather. The sharply stronger dollar will limit upside if sustained, with the upper end of the range being held for now. The report is expected to show stocks at 2.318 billion bushels on a range of 2.225 to 2.448 billion bushels. The weekly export inspections were inline at 466,056 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show spring wheat harvest mostly wrapped up with winter wheat planting past 1/3 complete. The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $4.01, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.16. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BE) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.