DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/01 11:00

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/01 11:00 Grains Mixed at Midday Row crops extend post report gains, while wheat slumps lower. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 170. The dollar index is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.10. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $16. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday as we continue to digest the report with corn stocks coming in 314 million bushels below expectations at 2.114 billion yestrday. Rains will slow early harvest in many areas in the short term, and colder air will be working in during the near term, potentially causing some problems to the north. Ethanol margins narrowed with ethanol softer this morning, with blender margins taking the bigger hit as the energy complex continues to pull back from the highs. Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. Weekly crop progress showed conditions unchanged at 57% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor with 88% dented vs. 98% on average, 43% mature vs. 73% on average, and 11% harvested vs. 19% on average. On the December contract support is at the 50-day at $3.84 3/4, and resistance the high at $3.91 1/4. SOYBEANS Soybeans are 8 to 10 cents higher with supportive numbers on the report with stocks at 913 million vs 982 expected, and the prior years production reduced by 116 million, keeping trade firmer this morning. Meal is 5.00 to 6.00 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. Crush margins remain good, but sustained trade progress is needed to get the market more excited. Economically U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but the real has faded again. Bean basis remains flat in the interior until harvest expands more. South America has the beginnings of planting underway with mixed rains this week. Crop progress kept conditions at 55% good to excellent, 13% poor to very poor, with 55% dropping leaves vs. 76% on average, with 7% harvested vs. 20% on average. On the November chart support is the 10-day at $8.91 with the upper Bollinger band remaining resistance at $9.17. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 13 cents lower with spring wheat the downside leader after early strength after the report came in very close to expectations with wheat stocks at 2.365 billion vs. 2.318 expected and production at 1.962 billion vs. 1.968 expected, with trade unable to extend gains after tests of the upper end of the range, with conditions overall overbought. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 82 cents with the higher end of the range being tested again. The corn/hrw spread has narrowed to 19 cents this a.m. Winter wheat planting should expand more this week, but the market is not providing incentives to plant any more hard red winter acres than necessary, while Australia continues to see a bit of dry weather. The sharply stronger dollar will limit upside if sustained, with the upper end of the range being held for now. Weekly crop progress showed spring wheat harvest 90% complete vs. 100% on average with winter wheat 39% vs. 38% on average, with 11% emerged vs. 13% on average. The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $4.03, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.17. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BE) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.