DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/28 11:40

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/28 11:40 All Grains Lower at Midday Corn is 4 cents lower, soybeans are 14 cents lower, and wheat is 1 to 5 cents lower. David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst The U.S. stock market is lower with the Dow down 90 points. The dollar index is 12 points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.60, unleaded down more than a penny and ethanol a few pennies higher. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $13. CORN Corn trade is 4 cents lower at midday with trade down as much as 5 1/2 cents. Pressure on the overnight open occurred due to improved crop conditions and milder temperatures. Outside markets are slightly negative as well. The weather is expected to be a non-issue short term with rains expected. The ethanol margins should remain stable with gasoline demand holding serve in recent days. Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days. Localized basis moves may be seen both positive and negative, with movement prior to the upcoming harvest, but some areas with tight old crop should improve basis to get bushels moved while the board is slipping. The weekly crop progress had conditions up 3% to 72% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor. Progress numbers had silking at 82% vs. 75% on average, and 22% in the dough vs. 17% on average. On the September contract, trade continues to have resistance at the gap level from earlier in the month at $3.36, with chart support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.15. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 14 cents lower at midday with pressure from improved crop conditions. Meal is $3.50 lower and oil is 30 points lower. Market bulls argue demand will step up to take on some of the rising crop ideas due to the rains, non-threatening weather outlooks that have been reflected in the better USDA crop ratings. The ral remains at the upper point of the recent range vs. the dollar with the new dollar lows likely to boost new crop sales. Crop conditions showing conditions 3% better to 72% good to excellent. Progress numbers had 76% blooming vs. 72% on average, and 43% setting pods vs. 36% on average. The August chart now has support at the 20-day at $8.93 which we have tested. Resistance is at the 200-day moving average at $9.07 then the upper Bollinger Band at $9.12. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to cents higher with the back and forth pattern continuing despite the fresh lows in the dollar. The ruble is losing ground, but harvest will keep bushels moving out of the Black Sea area short term. Kansas City is at an 86-cent discount to Chicago with spreads stable, while Minneapolis is back to a 20 cent discount. Winter wheat harvest 81% complete vs. 82% on average, with spring wheat 70% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, 2% better on the week with 97% headed vs. 98% on average, and 1% harvested vs. 3% on average, with spring wheat conditions steady. Kansas City September chart support is the recent low at $4.23 3/4, with the 20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.45. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.