DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 11:02
9 Nov 2020
DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 11:02 Grains Mixed at Midday Corn is flat to 1 cent higher, soybeans are 7 to 8 cents higher, and wheat is flat to 2 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst The U.S. stock market is sharply higher with the Dow up 1100. The dollar index is 60 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are sharply higher with crude up $3.30. Livestock trade is higher with cattle leading. Precious metals are sharply weaker with gold down 100.00. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny higher with sideways action continuing as we head towards the November WASDE report tomorrow with harvest pretty well concluded nationally and spillover support limited so far. Ethanol margins will remain tight for producer and blender with driving demand likely to be watched closely in the short term with the bump in crude and unleaded providing gains today. Basis remains generally strong. The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 2.033 billion bushels, down 160 million from last month with yield down slightly at 177.7 BPA. Weekly harvest progress should show harvest past 90%, with weekly export inspections remaining rangebound at 690,079 metric tons. On the December contract support is the 20-day at $4.05 with the recent high at 4.22 1/4 as resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade back near the highs with buying picking up after the vaccine news with spread trade still flat to weaker and the initial spike fading. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The USDA announced 132,000 metric tons sold to unknown. South America has more dry pockets building but with relief spotty in the short term. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels with freight issues likely to pop up. The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 235 million bushels, down from 290 last month on yield of 51.6 BPA, down .3 from last month. Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the range of 2.496 million metric tons, with harvest around 95% complete. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high at the fresh high at 11.18 scored overnight before pulling back, with support the 20-day at $10.70. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with choppy action continuing with potential rain on the Plains, and some potential relief for Russia in the extended forecast. The near-term weather pattern looks to cool off for the Plains with moisture concentrated from the central to the east coming out of the weekend as part of the transition. The weaker dollar will improve export competitiveness if sustained here. Kansas City is at 45-cent discount to Chicago with spreads headed to the lower end of the range, while Minneapolis is back to 48 cent discount as well. The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 881 million bushels, effectively unchanged from last month. Weekly crop progress should show planting nearly complete with emergence around the five-year average, with conditions steady to lower. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 304,239 metric tons. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.79 1/2, and support is the 20-day at $5.53, then the lower Bollinger Band at $5.23 below that. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.