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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/12 11:43

12 Sep 2023
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/12 11:43 Hogs Take on Resistance The lean hog complex is back to trading higher, despite the morning's WASDE report cutting quarterly prices for late 2023 because of demand. The market seems to be keeping with its bold move for the time being. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts are mildly lower while the hog complex is back to trading higher and is taking on resistance. Tuesday's WASDE report didn't rock the cattle or hog markets one way or another, and both markets will continue to scout for fundamental support moving forward. December corn is down 11 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90.87 points. LIVE CATTLE: After closing at yet another new contract high Monday afternoon, the live cattle complex seemed energized at Tuesday's start as the market was mildly higher. But as the day has progressed, traders have backed off their aggressive push. October live cattle are down $1.05 at $183.15, December live cattle are down $0.80 at $187.47 and February live cattle are down $1.05 at $191.67. With the cash cattle market still quiet and the midmorning's WASDE report not sharing anything too crazy, the market is seeming to patiently wait for cash cattle interest to develop before it does much more of anything. Tuesday's WASDE report shouldn't gravely affect either the cattle or beef markets. Beef production for 2023 was decreased by 40 million pounds as lighter marketings are expected in the third quarter. It was mentioned, however, that this projection is coupled with the fact that carcass weights are heavier and cow slaughter speeds are expected to remain high in both the third and fourth quarters. Quarterly steers prices are unchanged from last month for both 2023 and 2024. 2023 beef imports grew by 35 million pounds from last month as high beef demand remains strong and ample supplies from Oceania continue to come in. Meanwhile, 2023 beef exports fell by 160 million pounds from last month as domestic supplies are tight. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.24 ($310.35) and select down $1.72 ($283.72) with a movement of 66 loads (29.84 loads of choice, 17.15 loads of select, 4.92 loads of trim and 14.24 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The feeder cattle contracts may have started the day out on a stronger note, but as Tuesday's noon hour nears, the complex is now trading lower. September feeders are down $1.87 at $254.35, October feeders are down $1.30 at $260.15 and November feeders are down $0.95 at $261.80. More than anything traders seem somewhat exhausted after boldly advancing the market late last week and through Monday's trade and could now look for continued support fundamentally before they work the contracts any higher. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog contracts are trading fully higher into the noon hour, which again puts the contracts up against resistance thresholds. October lean hogs are up $1.45 at $84.00, December lean hogs are up $1.52 at $76.17 and February lean hogs are up $0.82 at $79.67. As traders take the time to analyze the morning's WASDE report, they may become concerned with the decreased quarterly price projections for the third and fourth quarters of 2023. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/11/2023 is down $0.04 at $86.13, and the actual index for 9/8/2023 is down $0.10 at $86.17. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.09 with a weighted average price of $79.33, ranging from $76.00 to $80.00 on 839 head. Pork cutouts total 200.29 loads with 179.74 loads of pork cuts and 20.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.73, $101.18. Tuesday's WASDE report comes as mixed news for the hog and pork markets. 2023 pork production was decreased by 105 million pounds as production speeds have been reduced and carcass weights are lighter. 2023 barrow and gilt prices saw a correction for the third and fourth quarters from last month's estimates, as now the third quarter is expected to average $69.00 (down $5.00 from last month) and the fourth quarter is expected to average $59.00 (down $4.00 from last month). 2024 prices are unchanged from a month ago. 2023 imports were increased by 25 million pounds, but 2023 exports were decreased by 125 million pounds as an effect of weaker demand. ShayLe Stewart can be reached (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.