DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/04 11:56

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/04 11:56 Cattle a Little Higher, Hogs Steady at Midday Thursday Active futures for live cattle and feeders were trading a little higher Thursday, in spite of more weakness among boxed beef prices. Lean hog futures were steady, staying close to Wednesday's new one-year high. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle and feeder cattle prices were showing modest gains at midday Thursday, while lean hogs were mostly steady, supported by higher cutout values Thursday morning. LIVE CATTLE: While concerns about highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle hang over the cattle market, June live cattle futures are trading up $0.35 at $175.95, staying close to the 100-day average near $176.30. Early reports of cash trade were $3 to $5 lower in the North late Wednesday, a discouraging start after Monday's news that a person in Texas contracted HPAI after working near infected dairy cattle. So far, the worker's symptoms seemed mild and we are still a long way from any reason to conclude the nation's milk and meat supplies are anything but safe. Reflecting concerns from the demand side of the market, boxed beef prices have retreated lower this week. Thursday morning's report from USDA showed choice boxed beef at $299.41, down $7.31 from last Friday afternoon. Selects were quoted at $296.56, down $6.87 from last Friday with 101 total loads. Dow Jones estimated Thursday's cattle slaughter at 123,000, down from 124,000 a week ago. Earlier Thursday, USDA reported 18,700 metric tons of beef were sold for export last week, a higher amount, thanks to leading purchases from South Korea and Japan. So far in 2024, beef exports are down 5% from a year ago at this time. On Thursday, southern Wisconsin is still getting some snow, but most of the snow has pushed off to the northeastern U.S. Milder temperatures are coming into the western Plains and the forecast is mostly dry until a chance for precipitation returns to the northwestern Plains Saturday. Overall, the forecast is favorable for early pasture conditions and livestock. FEEDER CATTLE: May feeder cattle are trading up $1.20 at $243.77, keeping a bearish tone after Monday's $6.02 drop, but also staying close to its 100-day average near $244.00. While both cattle and feeder prices have reacted negatively to news of the HPAI infections in dairy cattle, it remains difficult to see a significant threat yet to the safety of either the milk or meat supply, while veterinarians and health officials around the country try to learn more about the virus and how to stop its spread. The main concern for now is that consumers may lean to other choices, while HPAI remains in the news. Meanwhile, we shouldn't forget USDA's January inventory report showed 13.28 million calves under 500 pounds, the lowest total since 1941. The CME Feeder Index showed $247.73 as of Tuesday, down $3.50 on the week, but roughly $4 higher than the April futures price. Technically speaking, May feeder cattle have broken below their one-month low and are wrestling with the 100-day average near $244.00. A weekly close below $244.00, if it happened, would indicate a weak market with more bearish potential. LEAN HOGS: June lean hogs are steady at $104.75 in a quiet day of trading after posting a new one-year high on Wednesday. Recent gains in hog prices suggest the current level of demand for hogs is stronger than USDA's inventory report was bearish and we continue to see that reflected in higher cash prices. The national average of swine formula prices were quoted by USDA at $85.28 Thursday morning, near its highest price since September and up over $20 so far this year. The CME Lean Hog Index projected $85.15 for Tuesday, up 90 cents from a week ago. In the first three days of this week, hog slaughter is down 15,000 from the previous week. Dow Jones estimates Thursday's hog slaughter at 487,000, down from 489,000 a week ago. Thursday morning's report of pork cutout values were up $3.00 at $97.91, helped by a $10.23 jump in bellies and a $4.72 gain in ribs. Technically speaking, June hog prices are trading near their highest prices in over a year and the 2023 high for June prices was at $109.12. Early Thursday, USDA said 28,700 mt of pork were sold for export last week, thanks to 23,000 mt marked for Mexico. So far in 2024, actual pork exports are up 9% from a year ago. Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @ToddHultman1 (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.