OMAHA (DTN) -- In a Friday morning speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered one of the strongest signals yet that the central bank will look to lower interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September.
Looking at both a cooling of inflation and a slowing labor market, Powell said at a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, "The time has come for policy to adjust." He added, "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
The current Federal Reserve fund rate is 5.5%, a rate that has been the same since July 2023. As inflation spiked coming out of the pandemic, the Fed raised its policy rate by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023. The last Fed rate move was an increase in July 2023.
The S&P 500 saw a quick bump as Powell's comments were made. So did corn and soybean prices as the November soybean contract moved up nearly 4 cents just after Powell's comments became public, and December corn also saw a positive bump.
Powell revisited the economy coming out of the pandemic, stressing the challenges of inflation. He noted inflation has gone from averaging 6.5% in 2022 down to 2.5% overall in the past 12 months. That is moving closer to the Fed's overall goal of 2%.
"My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%," Powell said.
Employment numbers, however, are rising with the unemployment rate now at 4.3% -- still low but almost a full percentage point higher than a year ago, and "most of that increase has come in the past six months," he said.
Despite the layoffs reported in areas such as agriculture and manufacturing, Powell said the rise of unemployment is driven by a "substantial increase in supply of workers and slowdown in the frantic pace of hiring," and not due to a large volume of layoffs. Still, he added, "The cooling in the labor market conditions is unmistakable."
Powell said the Fed will do everything the central bank can to support a strong labor market as well as pushing inflation to decline. "With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market."
The policy rate now "gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions."
Powell's full speech https://www.federalreserve.gov/…
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