By DTN Staff
This article was originally published at 11:03 a.m. CST on Friday, Jan. 10. It was last updated with additional information at 11:33 a.m. CST on Friday, Jan. 10.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA released its Crop Production Annual Summary, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Dec. 1 Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports on Friday.
USDA cut the national average corn yield by 3.8 bushels per acre (bpa). It increased harvested acres modestly, resulting in a 276-million-bushel (mb) cut to production. At 14.867 billion bushels (bb), total U.S. corn production came in well below pre-report expectations.
USDA trimmed 2024 soybean yield by 1 bushel per acre to 50.7 bpa. It also lowered harvested acreage from 86.3 million to 86.1 million acres, resulting in total production of 4.366 billion bushels. That's 95 million bushels less than November's forecast and below the range of pre-report expectations.
Friday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans, and neutral for wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. Friday's world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bullish for corn, neutral to slightly bullish for soybeans, and neutral for wheat, he said.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often, as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production Annual Summary, Grains Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
Corn production for the 2024-25 crop was lowered to 14.867 billion bushels, down 276 million bushels from last month. USDA cut the national yield to 179.3 bushels per acre, down 3.8 bpa. Harvested acres were raised to 200,000 acres to 82.9 million acres.
For demand, projected total Feed and Residual use is 5.775 bb, down 50 mb from last month. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 bb, down 50 mb.
Corn exports are pegged at 2.45 bb, down 25 mb from December.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.54 bb, down 198 mb, and below the pre-report average.
The quarterly Grain Stocks report for corn showed stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2024, totaled 12.1 bb, down 1% from a year ago and just below the pre-report average. Of total stocks, 7.66 bb were stored on farms, down 2% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 4.41 bb, up 2% from a year ago. Usage for the quarter from September-November came in at 4.56 bb, compared to 4.53 bb for the same quarter last year.
The farmgate price for 2024-25 was $4.25 a bushel, up 15 cents.
Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 317.46 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.24 mmt from last month. Global ending stocks were pegged at 293.34 mmt, down 3.1 mmt. USDA held pat on 2024-25 Brazil's corn production at 127 mmt but lowered exports 1 mmt to 47 mmt. Argentina is pegged at 51 mmt production with 36 mmt of exports.
For the global 2023-24 crop, USDA also held Brazil's production at 122 mmt, but exports were lowered 2 mmt to 39.5 mmt. USDA maintained Argentina's production at 50 mmt, but raised exports 1 mmt to 34 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA trimmed 2024 soybean yield by 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. It also lowered harvested acreage from 86.3 million to 86.1 million acres, resulting in total production of 4.366 bb. That's 95 million bushels less than November's forecast and below the range of pre-report expectations.
The production cut was the largest contributor to USDA's lower ending stocks forecast for the 2024-25 marketing year, which was 90 mb less than last month at 380 mb. USDA forecast 5 mb more imports and 1 mb increased residual use.
The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $10.20.
In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA pegged soybean supplies on hand at 3.1 bb, up 3% from 2023. Stocks stored on-farms totaled 1.54 bb, up 6% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks stood at 1.56 bb, up 1% from last year. The quarterly indicated usage totaled 1.61 bb, up 13% from the same time period in 2023.
Globally, USDA cut 2024-25 ending stocks by 3.5 million metric tons to 128.37 mmt, reflecting the changes to U.S. supply, although it sees imports climbing 1.06 mmt and crush increasing 1.87 mmt It left Brazil and Argentina's production levels unchanged at 169 mmt and 52 mmt, respectively.
WHEAT
The agency estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 798 million bushels, up from 795 mb in December's report.
Seed demand is pegged at 64 mb, an increase from 62 mb in December. Feed and residual use is estimated at 120 mb, unchanged from December.
Domestic use was estimated at 2.0 billion bushels, up from December's estimate of 1.998 bb. Exports are estimated at 850 mb, unchanged from last month. The farmgate price is estimated at $5.55, down from $5.60 last month.
From the Grain Stocks report, wheat stored in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 1.57 bb, up 10% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 467 million bushels, up 16% from last December.
Off-farm stocks, at 1.1 bb, are up 8% from a year ago. The quarterly indicated use is 423 mb, 22% above the same period a year earlier.
Globally, ending stocks were pegged at 258.82 million metric tons, an increase from 257.88 mmt in December.
Exports are estimated at 46.0 mmt for Russia, a decrease from 47.0 mmt last month, and 16.0 mmt for Ukraine, slightly down from 16.5 mmt in December.
Production in Australia was estimated at 32.0 mmt, unchanged from December. Production in Argentina was estimated at 17.5 mmt, unchanged from last month.
WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS
Planted area for harvest in 2025 is estimated at 34.1 million acres, up 2% from 2024 but down 7% from 2023. A record-low planted area is expected in Utah. Seeding of the 2025 acreage was underway in early September.
By Oct. 20, producers had sown 73% of the intended 2025 winter wheat acreage, 1 percentage point behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the five-year average.
Nationwide, 46% of the winter wheat acreage had emerged by Oct. 20, which was 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the five-year average.
Throughout much of the season, planting progressed on pace with the five-year average and reached 97% complete by Nov. 24. Emergence was 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the five-year average pace on Nov. 24.
Hard red winter wheat seeded area is expected to total 24.0 million acres, up 1% from 2024. The largest increases in planted acreage are estimated in Montana and Texas, while Kansas is estimated to have a decrease.
Soft red winter wheat seeded area totals 6.44 million acres, up 6% from last year. Compared with last year, the largest acreage increases are expected in Michigan and Ohio, while the largest acreage decreases are expected in Kentucky and Missouri.
White winter wheat-seeded area totals 3.64 million acres, up 3% from 2024. No states in the region are expecting decreased acreage.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets in 2025, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"2025 beef production jumped by 125 million pounds, as steer and heifer slaughter speeds are faster than originally assumed, and although I personally don't agree with their assumption that heifer retention may partly be a factor here as well, that is what USDA officials noted. Steer prices for 2025 are higher than last month's report, as steers in the first quarter of 2025 are now expected to average $194 (up $6), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $194 (up $5), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $196 (up $4) and estimates for steer prices in the fourth quarter now sit at $198. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 60 million pounds -- with supplies notably coming from Oceania and South America. But beef exports for 2025 were unchanged at 2,595,000 pounds."
Friday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2025 was increased by 140 million pounds as processing speeds have increased. Hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1), hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $66 (up $1), hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $2) and hog prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 are estimated to be $56. Pork imports for 2025 were unchanged (1,140 million pounds) and pork exports for 2025 were also unchanged (7,325 million pounds)."
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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST on Friday, Jan. 10, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's January WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | | | |
| | Jan | Avg | High | Low | Dec | 2023-24 |
| Corn | 14,867 | 15,092 | 15,240 | 14,965 | 15,143 | 15,341 |
| Soybeans | 4,366 | 4,451 | 4,539 | 4,419 | 4,461 | 4,162 |
| | | | | | | |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2024-25 (WASDE) |
| | Jan | Avg | High | Low | Dec | 2023-24 |
| Corn | 179.3 | 182.6 | 183.7 | 181.3 | 183.1 | 177.3 |
| Soybeans | 50.7 | 51.6 | 52.6 | 51.2 | 51.7 | 50.6 |
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| QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels) | |
| | 12/1/24 | Avg | High | Low | 9/1/24 | 12/1/23 |
| Corn | 12,074 | 12,164 | 12,320 | 11,912 | 1,760 | 12,171 |
| Soybeans | 3,100 | 3,236 | 3,587 | 3,040 | 342 | 3,001 |
| Wheat | 1,570 | 1,578 | 1,638 | 1,460 | 1,986 | 1,421 |
| | | | | | | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 |
| | Jan | Avg | High | Low | Dec | |
| Corn | 1,540 | 1,678 | 1,815 | 1,540 | 1,738 | |
| Soybeans | 380 | 454 | 486 | 390 | 470 | |
| Wheat | 798 | 807 | 830 | 792 | 795 | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | | |
| | Jan | Avg | High | Low | Dec | |
| Corn | 293.3 | 295.0 | 297.1 | 290.5 | 296.4 | |
| Soybeans | 128.4 | 132.0 | 133.0 | 130.0 | 131.9 | |
| Wheat | 258.8 | 258.2 | 259.0 | 256.5 | 257.9 | |
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| WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE (million acres) 2025 |
| | Jan | Avg | High | Low | | 2024 |
| All Winter | 34.1 | 33.5 | 34.4 | 32.5 | | 33.4 |
| Hard Red | 24.0 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 23.3 | | 23.8 |
| Soft Red | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | | 6.1 |
| White | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | | 3.5 |
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